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Abstrakty
In this paper, we investigate contagion between three European stock markets: those in Frankfurt, Vienna, and Warsaw. Two of them are developed markets, while the last is an emerging market. Additionally, the stock exchanges in Vienna and Warsaw are competing markets in the CEE region. On the basis of daily and intraday returns, we analyze and compare the dependence between the major indices of these markets during calm and turbulent periods. A comparison of the dependence in the tail and in the central part of the joint distribution of returns (via a spatial contagion measure) indicates strong contagion among the analyzed markets. Additionally, the application of a conditional contagion measure indicates the importance of taking into account the situation on other markets when contagion between two markets is considered.
Słowa kluczowe
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
23--45
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 29 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
- AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics
autor
- AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics
Bibliografia
- [1] Andersen, T., Bollerslev, T. (1997) ‘Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets’, Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 4, pp. 115–158.
- [2] Baruník, J. and Vácha, L. (2013) ‘Contagion among Central and Eastern European Stock Markets during the Financial Crisis’, Finance a úvěr-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 63, No. 5, pp. 443–453.
- [3] Cappiello, L., Engle, R. and Sheppard, K. (2006) ‘Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns’, Journal of Financial Econometrics, vol. 4, pp. 537−572.
- [4] Chen, G.M., Firth, M. and Rui, O.M. (2002) ‘Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America’, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 26, pp. 1113−1141.
- [5] Černý, A. and Koblas, M. (2005) ‘Stock Market Integration and the Speed of Information Transmission: The Role of Data Frequency in Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests’, Journal of International Business and Economics, vol. 1, pp. 110–120.
- [6] Durante, F., Foscolo, E. (2013) ‘An analysis of the dependence among financial markets by spatial contagion’, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 319–331.
- [7] Durante, F., Foscolo, E., Jaworski, P. and Wang, H. (2014) ‘A spatial contagion measure for financial time series’, Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 4023–4034.
- [8] Durante, F., Foscolo, E. and Sabo, M. (2013) ‘A spatial contagion test for financial markets’. in: Kruse, R., Berthold, M., Moewes, C., Gil, M., Grzegorzewski, P. and Hryniewicz, O. (eds.) Synergies of Soft Computing and Statistics for Intelligent Data Analysis, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, Berlin–Heidelberg: Springer, vol. 190, pp. 313–320.
- [9] Durante, F. and Jaworski, P. (2010) ‘Spatial contagion between financial markets: a copula-based approach’, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 551–564.
- [10] Engle, R.F. (2002) ‘Dynamic Conditional Correlation’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 339–350.
- [11] Engle, R.F. and Sokalska, M.E. (2012) ‘Forecasting intraday volatility in the US equity market. Multiplicative component GARCH’, Journal of Financial Econometrics, vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 54–83.
- [12] Égert, B. and Kočenda, E. (2007) ‘Interdependence between Eastern and Western European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data’, Economic Systems, vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 184–203.
- [13] Égert, B. and Kočenda, E. (2011) ‘Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets’, Empirical Economics, vol. 40, No. 2, pp. 393–407.
- [14] Forbes, K. and Rigobon, R. (2002) ‘No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements’, The Journal of Finance, vol. 62, No. 5, pp. 2223–2261.
- [15] Gjika, D. and Horváth, R. (2013) ‘Stock Market Comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from Asymmetric DCC Model’, Economic Modelling, vol. 33, pp. 55–64.
- [16] Gurgul, H. and Wójtowicz, T. (2014) ‘The impact of US macroeconomic news on the Polish stock market. The importance of company size to information flow’, Central European Journal of Operations Research, vol. 22, pp. 795–817.
- [17] Gurgul, H., and Wójtowicz, T. (2015) ‘The Response of Intraday ATX Returns to U.S. Macroeconomic News’, Finance a úvěr – Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 65, No. 3, pp. 230–253.
- [18] Hamao, Y., Masulis, R. and Ng, V. (1990) ‘Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets’, Review of Financial Studies, vol. 3, pp. 281−308.
- [19] Hanousek, J., Kočenda, E. and Kutan, A.M. (2009) ‘The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: evidence from intraday data’, Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 199–219.
- [20] Harju, K. and Hussain, S.M. (2011) ‘Intraday Seasonalities and Macroeconomic News Announcements’, European Financial Management, vol. 17, pp. 367–390.
- [21] Kim, S.J., Moshirian, F. and Wu, E. (2005) ‘Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis’, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 29, pp. 2475−2502.
- [22] Longin, E. and Solnik, B. (2001) ‘Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets’, Journal of Finance, vol. 56, No. 2, pp. 649–676.
- [23] Nikkinen, J., Omran, M., Sahlström, M. and Äijö, A. (2006) ‘Global stock market reactions to scheduled U.S. macroeconomic news announcements’, Global Finance Journal, vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 92–104.
- [24] Savva, C.S. and Aslanidis, C. (2010) ‘Stock Market Integration between New EU Member States and the Eurozone’, Empirical Economics, vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 337–351.
- [25] Schmid, F. and Schmidt, R. (2007) ‘Multivariate extensions of Spearman’s rho and related statistics’, Statistics and Probability Letters, vol. 77, No. 4, pp. 407–416.
- [26] Syllignakis, M.N. and Kouretas, G.P. (2011) ‘Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European Markets’, International Review of Economics & Finance, vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 717–732.
- [27] Syriopoulos, T. (2007) ‘Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?’ International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 41−60.
- [28] Voronkova, S. (2004) ‘Equity Market Integration in Central European Emerging Markets: A Cointegration Analysis with Shifting Regimes’, International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 633–647.
- [29] Wójtowicz, T. (2015) ‘Long-term relationships between the stock exchanges in Frankfurt, Vienna and Warsaw’, Zeszyty Naukowe, Uniwersytet Szczeciński, No. 855. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia, No. 74 (1), pp. 217–227.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
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