The Role of Climatic Variables for Estimating Probability of Abundance of Tree Species

• Autorzy: Antúnez P. , Wehenkel C. , López-Sánchez C. A. , Hernández-Díaz J. C.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.3161/15052249PJE2017.65.3.002

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

We analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the abundance of native tree species in 1,490 sampling plots systematically distributed in the Sierra Madre Occidental (state of Durango, Northwestern Mexico, 26°50′ and 22°17′N and 107°09′ and 102°30′W). We used the Weibull distribution and the finite Gaussian mixture model to study the climatic limits of 15 tree species in relation to seven variables thought to affect species abundance. We found that although they may occur in the same geographical region, some species display a wider range of ecological tolerance than others. Of the 15 species under study, only two (Quercus magnoliifolia and Q. arizonica) can be considered generalists in relation to some climatic variables, while the other 13 species behaved as specialists, implying a narrower range of distribution. The analytical techniques used enabled us to demarcate the zones in which the probability of abundance of each species is highest in relation to the climate variables considered. The findings could be used to help define climate for the 15 studied tree species of economic and ecological interest.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Gaussian mixture model; climatic space modelling; ecogram; Weibull function

PL

model mieszaniny Gaussa; modelowanie przestrzeni klimatycznej; ecogram; zapis echosondy; zapis z echografu; funkcja Weibulla; rozkład Weibulla

• Wydawca: Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Ecology
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 65, nr 3
• Strony: 324--338
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 58 poz., mapa, rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Antúnez P.

• División de Estudios de Posgrado-Instituto de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad de la Sierra Juárez, Avenida Universidad S/N, Ixtlán de Juárez, 68725 Oaxaca, México

autor

Wehenkel C.

• Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Km 5.5 Carretera Mazatlán, 34160 Durango, México

autor

López-Sánchez C. A.

• Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Km 5.5 Carretera Mazatlán, 34160 Durango, México

autor

Hernández-Díaz J. C.

• Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Km 5.5 Carretera Mazatlán, 34160 Durango, México

Bibliografia

• [1] Antoine M. E., McCune B. 2004 - Contrasting fundamental and realized ecological niches with epiphytic lichen transplants in an old-growth pseudotsuga forest - Bryologist, 107: 163-173.
• [2] Bodenhofer U., Kothmeier A., Hochreiter S. 2011 - APCluster: an R package for affinity propagation clustering - Bioinformatics, 27: 2463-2464.
• [3] Brotons L., Thuiller W., Araujo M. B., Hirzel A. H. 2004 - Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability - Ecography, 27: 437-448.
• [4] Chen T., Morris J., Martin E. 2006 - Probability density estimation via an infinite Gaussian mixture model: application to statistical process monitoring - J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-APP 55: 699-715.
• [5] CONAFOR (Comision Nacional Forestal) 2009 - Manual y procedimientos para el muestreo de campo - Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos [Manual and procedures for field sampling - National forest and soil inventory] - http://www.snieg.mx/contenidos/espanol/iin/Acuerdo_3_X/Manual_y_Procedimientos_ para_el_Muestreo_de_Campo_INFyS_2004–2009.pdf, Accessed 20 February 2017.
• [6] Cowles H. C. 1901 - The physiographic ecology of Chicago and vicinity: a study of the origin, development, and classification of plant societies (concluded) - Bot. Gaz. 31: 145-182.
• [7] Crookston N. L., Rehfeldt E. G., Ferguson D. E., Warwell M. 2008 - FVS and global warming: a prospectus for future development (In: Proceedings of the third forest vegetation simulator conference, Eds: R. N. Havis, N. L. Crookston) - Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO: U.S. pp. 7-16.
• [8] De Baar H. J. W. 1994 - von Liebig's Law of the minimum and plankton ecology (1899-1991) - Progr. Oceanogr. 33: 347-386.
• [9] Dempster A. P., Laird N. M., Rubin D. B. 1977 - Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm - J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B Met. 39: 1-38.
• [10] Duchesneau R., Lesage I., Messier C., Morin H. 2001 - Effects of light and intraspecific competition on growth and crown morphology of two size classes of understory balsam fir saplings - Forest Ecol. Manag. 140: 215-225.
• [11] Earle C. J. (Ed.) 2015 - The Gymnosperm database - http://www.conifers.org/pi/Pinus_strobiformis.php. Accessed 27 March 2015.
• [12] Eguiluz P. T. 2012 - Clima y distribucion del genero Pinus en Mexico [Climate and distribution of the genus Pinus in Mexico] - Rev. Mex. Cienc. Forest. 7: 1-38 (in Spanish).
• [13] Ellenberg H. 2009 - Vegetation ecology of central Europe - Cambridge University Press 756 pp.
• [14] Fithian W., Hastie T. 2013 - Finite-sample equivalence in statistical models for presence- only data - Ann. Appl. Stat. 7: 1917.
• [15] Fraley C., Raftery A. E., Murphy T. B., Scrucca L. 2012 - Mclust Version 4 for R: Normal mixture modeling for model-based clustering, Classification, and Density Estimation - https://www.stat.washington.edu/research/reports/2012/tr597.pdf Accessed 7 June 2015.
• [16] Franklin J. 2010 - Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK, 319 pp.
• [17] Frey B. J., Dueck D. 2007 - Clustering by passing messages between data points - Science, 315: 972-976.
• [18] Gilbert G. S. 2002 - Evolutionary ecology of plant diseases in natural ecosystems - Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 40: 13-43.
• [19] González-Elizondo M. S., González-Elizondo M., Tena-Flores J. A., Ruacho-González L., Lopez-Enriquez I. L. 2012 - Vegetacion de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico: una sintesis [Vegetation of the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico: a synthesis] - Acta Bot. Mex. 100: 351-403 (in Spanish).
• [20] Gregorius H. R., Degen B., Konig A. 2007 - Problems in the analysis of genetic differentiation among populations-a case study in Quercus robur - Silvae Genet. 56: 190-199.
• [21] Grinnell J. 1917 - Field tests of theories concerning distributional control - Am. Nat. 51: 115-128.
• [22] Guisan A., Thuiller W. 2005 - Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models - Ecol Lett. 8: 993-1009.
• [23] Holt R. D. 2009 - Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: ecological and evolutionary perspectives - P. Nat. A. Sci. (Supplement 2) 106: 19659-19665.
• [24] Hutchinson G. E. 1957 - A Treatise on Limnology - New York: Wiley & Sons, 1015 pp.
• [25] Iverson L. R., Prasad A. M., Matthews S. N., Peters M. 2008 - Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios - Forest Ecol. Manag. 254: 390-406.
• [26] Jonsson B., Holm S., Kallur H. 1992 - A forest inventory method based on densityadapted circular plot size - Scan. J. Forest. Res. 7: 405-421.
• [27] Kumbaric A., Ceschin S., Zuccarello V., Caneva G. 2012 - Main ecological parameters affecting the colonization of higher plants in the biodeterioration of stone embankments of Lungotevere (Rome) - Int. Biodeter. Biodegr. 72: 31-41.
• [28] Lalanne A., Bardat J., Lalanne-Amara F., Ponge J. F. 2010 - Local and regional trends in the ground vegetation of beech forests - Flora, 205: 484-498.
• [29] Lawton J. H. 1999 - Are there general laws in ecology? - Oikos, 177-192.
• [30] Leibold M. A. 1995 - The niche concept revisited: mechanistic models and community context - Ecology, 76: 1371-1382.
• [31] Lobo J. M., Jimenez-Valverde A., Hortal J. 2010 - The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling - Ecography, 33: 103-114.
• [32] Lunn D. J., Thomas A., Best N., Spiegelhalter D. 2000 - WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility - Stat. Comput. 10: 325-337.
• [33] Martínez-Antúnez P., Hernandez-Diaz J. C., Wehenkel C., Lopez-Sánchez C. A. 2015 - Estimacion de la densidad de especies de coniferas a partir de variables ambientales [Density estimation of conifer species from environmental variables] - Madera Bosques, 21: 23-33 (in Spanish).
• [34] Martínez-Antúnez P., Wehenkel C., Hernandez-Diaz J. C., Corral-Rivas J. J. 2014 - Use of the Weibull function to model maximum probability of abundance of tree species in northwest Mexico - Ann. For. Sci. 72: 243-251.
• [35] Martínez-Antúnez P., Wehenkel C., Hernandez-Diaz J. C., González-Elizondo M., Corral-Rivas J. J., Pinedo-Alvarez A. 2013 - Effect of climate and physiography on the density of trees and shrubs species in Northwest Mexico - Pol. J. Ecol. 61:295-307.
• [36] Návar-Cháidez J. D. J., González-Elizondo S. 2009 - Diversidad, estructura y productividad de bosques templados de Durango, Mexico [Diversity, structure and productivity of temperate forests in Durango, Mexico] - Polibotanica, 27: 71-87 (in Spanish).
• [37] Parzen E. 2004 - Quantile probability and statistical data modeling - Stat. Sci. 19: 652-662.
• [38] Pearson R. G., Dawson T. P. 2003 - Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? - Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 12: 361-371.
• [39] Phillips S. J., Dudik M., Elith J., Graham C. H., Lehmann A., Leathwick J., Ferrier S. 2009 - Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data - Ecol. Appl. 19: 181-197.
• [40] R Core Team 2014 - R: a language and environment for statistical computing - R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria, 3551 p. https://cran.rproject.org/doc/manuals/r-release/fullrefman.pdf Accessed 1 May 2015.
• [41] Rasmussen C. E. 1999 - The infinite Gaussian mixture model (In: NIPS vol. 12, pp. 554-560) - http://www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/~edward/pub/inf.mix.nips.99.pdf Accessed 7 May 2015.
• [42] Sénz-Romero C., Rehfeldt G. E., Crookston N. L., Duval P., St-Amant R., Beaulieu J., Richardson B. A. 2010 - Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation - Climatic Change, 102: 595-623.
• [43] Sánchez C., Claessens H., Puissant T., Lecomte H., Rondeux J. 2007 - Vegetation diversity assessment in southern Belgium's permanent forest inventory (In: CAB International. Sustainable Forestry: from Monitoring and Modelling to Knowledge Management and Policy Science, Eds: K. M. Reynolds, A. J. Thomson, M. Kolh, M. A. Shannon, D. Ray, K. Rennolls) - Jefferson Way, Corvallis Oregon pp. 208-223.
• [44] Schweik C. M. 1998 - Social norms and human foraging: An investigation into the spatial distribution of Shorea robusta in Nepal. Forest, trees and people programme. FAO, Rome - Working paper, (3). http://www.treesforlife.info/fao/Docs/P/X2104E/X2104E06.htm Accessed 26 June 2015.
• [45] Silva-Flores R., Perez-Verdin G., Wehenkel C. 2014 - Patterns of tree species diversity in relation to climatic factors on the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico - PLoS ONE 9(8): 105034. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105034.
• [46] Simental-Rodriguez S. L., Quinones-Perez C. Z., Moya D., Hernandez-Tecles E., Lopez-Sánchez C. A., Wehenkel C. 2014 - The relationship between species diversity and genetic structure in the rare Picea chihuahuana tree species community, Mexico - PLoS ONE 9(11): e111623. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111623.
• [47] Soberón J. 2007 - Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species - Ecol. Let. 10: 1115-1123.
• [48] Soberón J., Nakamura M. 2009 - Niches and distributional areas: concepts, methods, and assumptions - P. Nat. A. Sci. (Supplement 2) 106: 19644-19650.
• [49] Soberón J. M., Peterson A. T. 2005 - Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas - Biodivers. Inform. 2: 1-10.
• [50] Strauss A. 2004 - Characterization of typical vegetation communities of the wetlands of the Khar Us Nuur National Park in Western Mongolia-analysis of the site requirements of vegetation and of the effects of degradation - Ms. Thesis. Univ. Greifswald, Mongolia. 116 pp.
• [51] Turchin P. 2001 - Does population ecology have general laws? - Oikos, 94: 17-26.
• [52] USDA 2014 - Forest Service, Department of Agriculture of the United States. Moscow Forestry Sciences Laboratory - https://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/. Accessed 20 February 2017.
• [53] Vazquez D. P. 2005 - Reconsiderando el nicho hutchinsoniano [Reconsidering the Hutchinsonian niche] - Ecologia Austral. 15: 149-158 (in Spanish).
• [54] Wehenkel C., Simental-Rodriguez S.L., Silva-Flores R., Hernandez-Diaz J.C., Lopez-Sánchez C.A., Antunez P. 2015 - Discrimination of 59 seed stands of various Mexican pine species based on 43 dendrometric, climatic, edaphic and genetic traits - Forstarchiv, 86: 194-201.
• [55] Whittaker R. J. 1999 - Ecology: Scaling, energetics and diversity - Nature, 40: 865-866.
• [56] Wiens J. J., Graham C. H. 2005 - Niche conservatism: integrating evolution, ecology, and conservation biology - Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 36: 519-539.
• [57] Xuan G., Zhang W., Chai P. 2001 - EM algorithms of Gaussian mixture model and hidden Markov model - Proceedings of International Conference on Image processing, 1: 145-148. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=958974&isnumber=20726 Accessed 22 July 2017.
• [58] Yesson C., Culham A. 2006 - A phyloclimatic study of cyclamen - BMC Evol. Biol. 6: 72-95.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).