UT1 prediction based on long-time series analysis

• Autorzy: Tissen V. , Tolstikov A. , Malkin Z.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9

• Konferencja: Proceedings of the IERS Workshop on EOP Combination and Prediction, Warsaw, 19-21 October 2009
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Earth rotation; Earth orientation; parameter; universal time; UT1; UT1 prediction; polyharmonic model; autoregression

• Wydawca: Centrum Badań Kosmicznych PAN ; De Gruyter
• Czasopismo: Artificial Satellites : Journal of Planetary Geodesy
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: Vol. 45, No. 2
• Strony: 111--118
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 10 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tissen V.

• Siberian Metrological Scientific-Research Institute (SNIIM), Novosibirsk, Russia

autor

Tolstikov A.

• Siberian Metrological Scientific-Research Institute (SNIIM), Novosibirsk, Russia

autor

Malkin Z.

• Central Astronomical Observatory at Pulkovo of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia

Bibliografia

• Akulenko L.D., Kumakshev S.A., Markov Yu.G., and Rykhlova L.V. (2002). Forecasting the Polar Motions of the Deformable Earth. Astronomy Reports, Vol. 46, 858-865.
• IERS (2001-2009). IERS Annual Reports 2000-2007, Verlag des Bundesamts für Kartographie und Geodäsie, Frankfurt am Main.
• Lambeck K. (1980). The Earth's Variable Rotation: Geophysical causes and consequences. Cambridge Univ. Press.
• Luzum B, Nothnagel A. (2010). Improved UT1 predictions through low-latency VLBI observations. J.~Geodesy, DOI: 10.1007/s00190-010-0372-8.
• McCarthy D.D., Petit G. (eds.) (2004). IERS Conventions (2003). IERS Technical Note No. 32, Verlag des Bundesamts für Kartographie und Geodäsie, Frankfurt am Main.
• Munk W.H., MacDonald G.J.F. (1960). The Rotation of the Earth. Cambridge Univ. Press.
• Pasynkov V.V., Danilyuk A.Ju., and Zabokritskii A.V. (2009). Ephemeris and time support of GLONASS, in: Proc. 3rd All-Russian Conference Fundamental and Applied Positioning, Timing and Navigation, IAA RAS, St. Petersburg, 51-53. (in Russian).
• Shuleykin V.V. (1971). Interactions in the “Ocean-Atmosphere-Continents” system, Priroda, 1971, No. 10, 12. (in Russian).
• Sidorenkov, N.S. (2002). Physics of the Earth's rotation instabilities, Moscow, Nauka. (in Russian).
• Tissen V.M., Tolstikov A.S., Balahnenko A Yu.,and Malkin Z.M. (2009). High precision prediction of universal time based on 100-year data. Measurement Techniques, Vol. 52, 1249-1255.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).