Modelling of agricultural commodity price effects on the fiscal performance and economic growth in Ukraine

• Autorzy: Shevchuk Victor , Kopych Roman

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.22630/ISIM.2019.8.1.5

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper analyses the effects of agricultural raw materials prices upon fiscal policy indicators and gross domestic product (GDP) output in Ukraine, on the basis of the VAR/VEC model using quarterly data for the period of 2002–2018. The results indicate a positive effect of agricultural commodity prices on GDP, with both government expenditure and revenue declining in the wake of favorable commodity price developments. As expected, higher agricultural commodity prices are associated with a real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, which in turn brings about an increase in government expenditure and revenue combined with an expansionary effect on GDP. Furthermore, agricultural commodity price and RER shocks are characterized by asymmetrical effects upon output. Among other results, there are positive output effects by both government expenditures and revenues, while the reverse causality suggests a decrease in fiscal variables following an increase in GDP. Several implications for stabilization policies are discussed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

agricultural commodity prices; fiscal policy; GDP; real exchange rate; Ukraine

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
• Czasopismo: Information Systems in Management
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 1
• Strony: 47--56
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 14 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Shevchuk Victor

• Institute of Economics, Sociology and Philosophy, Cracow University of Technology

autor

Kopych Roman

• Department of International Economic Relations, Lviv National University named by Ivan Franko

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).