Fuzzy–neuron Model of the Ship Propulsion Risk

• Autorzy: Brandowski A. , Mielewczyk A. , Nguyen H. , Frackowiak W.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A prediction model is presented of the ship propulsion risk, i.e. a risk of the consequences of loss of the ship propulsion capability. This is an expert model based on opinions elicited by the ship power plant operators. The risk level depends, among other things, on the reliability state of the ship propulsion sys-tem components. This state is defined by operators in a linguistic form. The formal risk model parameters are determined by means of a neural network. The model may be useful in the ship operation decision processes.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Casualty Analysis Tool; analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Risk Prediction; Immediate Catastrophic Failure'

• Wydawca: Faculty of Navigation, Gdynia Maritime University
• Czasopismo: TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: Vol. 5, no. 3
• Strony: 337--343
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Brandowski A.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Poland

autor

Mielewczyk A.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Poland

autor

Nguyen H.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Poland

autor

Frackowiak W.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Poland

Bibliografia

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• [2] Brandowski A. 2005. Subjective probability estimation in risk modeling (in Polish). Problemy Eksploatacji 3/2005 (58). Zeszyty Naukowe Instytutu Technologii Eksploatacji Ra-dom.
• [3] Brandowski A., Frackowiak W., Mielewczyk A. 2007. Subjective reliability estimation of a seagoing ships. Proceedings of ESREL2007 Conferece. Stravanger.
• [4] Brandowski A., Frackowiak W., Nguyen H., Podsiadlo A. 2008. Subjective propulsion risk of a seagoing ship. Proceedings of ESREL2008 Conference. Valencia.
• [5] Brandowski A., Frackowiak W., Nguyen H., Podsiadlo A. 2009. Risk estimation of a sea-going ship casualty as the consequence of propulsion loss. Proceedings of ESREL2009 Conference. Prague.
• [6] Brandowski A. 2009. Estimation of the probability of propulsion loss by a seagoing ship based on expert opinions. Polish Maritime Research 1/2009.
• [7] Gdańsk University of Technology. Gdańsk.
• [8] Saaty T.L. et al.1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York.McGraw-Hill.
• [9] Nguyen H. 2009. Application of AHP method in the risk etimation of ship systems (in Polish). Polish Maritime Research 1/2009. Gdańsk 2009.
• [10] Modarres M., Kaminskiy M., Krivtsov. 1999. Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis. New York, Basel: Marcel Dek-ker, Inc.
• [11] Misra K. B. 1992. Reliability Analysis and Prediction. A Methodology Oriented Treatment. ELSEVIER. Amster-dam, Oxford, New York, Tokyo.
• [12] Piegat A. 1999. Fuzzy modeling and contol (in Polish). Akademicka Oficyna Wydawnicza EXIT. Warszawa. Graham P. 2009. Casualty and World Fleet Statistics as at 31.12.2008. IUMI Facts & Figures Committee..
• [13] Podsiadło A. 2008. Analysis of failures in the engines of main ship propulsion (in Polish). Internal study of Gdynia Maritime University. Gdynia.