Modeling safety of port and maritime transportation systems

• Autorzy: Magryta-Mut Beata

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17402/565

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study aims to improve an earlier safety analysis of port and maritime transportation systems in two cases. The first case does not consider outside impacts and the second case operates under the assumption that they are impacted by their operation processes. New and original suggestions on separate and joint system safety and operation cost optimization are also described and future research is also outlined. Probabilistic modeling methods are used as the research methods. The proposed research procedures enable the determination of the safety function and risk function for the port oil terminal critical infrastructure and the maritime ferry technical system in both examined cases, based on the strictly exact statistical data about their operation processes and on the improved approximate evaluations of their components safety parameters through expert opinion methods that originate directly from the users of these systems. Other proposed practically significant safety and resilience indicators are the mean lifetime up to the exceeding of a critical safety state, the moment when the risk function value exceeds the acceptable safety level, the intensity of ageing/degradation in both cases, the coefficient of operation process impact on system safety, and the coefficient of system resilience to operation process impact in the second case. As a result of this research, it is originally found that the proposed cost optimization procedures and the finding of the corresponding system safety indicators deliver an important possibility for the system total operation cost minimizing and keep fixed the corresponding conditional safety indicators during the operation. It was also established that the proposed system safety optimization procedures, and corresponding system operation total costs, deliver an important possibility for the system safety indicators maximization and keep fixed the corresponding system operation total costs during the operation.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

port transport; maritime transport; safety; operation impact; resilience; operation costs; optimization

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: nr 74 (146)
• Strony: 65--74
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 16 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Magryta-Mut Beata

• Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Mathematics 81-87 Morska St., 81-225 Gdynia, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4189-1853

Bibliografia

• 1. Bogalecka, M. (2020) Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents – Environmental Impacts. Amsterdam, Oxford, Cambridge: Elsevier.
• 2. Gouldby, B.P., Schultz, M.T., Simm, J.D. & Wibowo, J.L. (2010) Beyond the Factor of Safety: Developing Fragility Curves to Characterize System Reliability. Report in Water Resources Infrastructure Program ERDC SR-10-1, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington.
• 3. Klabjan, D. & Adelman, D. (2006) Existence of optimal policies for semi-Markov decision processes using duality for infinite linear programming. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 44(6), pp. 2104–2122.
• 4. Kołowrocki, K. (2014) Reliability of Large and Complex Systems. 2nd Edition. Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberg, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo: Elsevier.
• 5. Kołowrocki, K. (2021) Safety analysis of critical infrastructure impacted by operation and climate-weather changes – theoretical backgrounds. In: Safety and Reliability of System and Processes. Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021. Gdynia, Poland: Gdynia Maritime University, pp. 139–180.
• 6. Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta, B. (2020) Changing system operation states influence on its total operation cost. In: Zamojski, W., Mazurkiewicz, J., Sugier, J., Walkowiak, T., Kacprzyk, J. (Eds) Theory and Applications of Dependable Computer Systems. DepCoS-RELCOMEX 2020. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 1173, Springer, Cham, pp. 355–365, doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-48256-5_35.
• 7. Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta-Mut, B. (2020) Safety of maritime ferry technical system impacted by operation process. K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds.). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes. Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia, Poland: Gdynia Maritime University, 117–134, doi:10.26408/srsp-2020-09.
• 8. Kołowrocki, K. & Magryta-Mut, B. (2022) Operation cost and safety optimization of maritime transportation system. In: A. Lecko & D.K. Thomas (Eds). Current Research in Mathematical and Computer Sciences III. Olsztyn, Poland: University of Warmia and Mazury Press, pp. 215–248.
• 9. Laugé, A., Hernantes, J. & Sarriegi, J.M. (2015) Critical infrastructure dependencies: A holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection 8, pp. 16–23.
• 10. Magryta-Mut, B. (2020) Safety optimization of maritime ferry technical system. In: K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes. Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2020. Gdynia, Poland: Gdynia Maritime University, pp. 175–182, doi:10.26408/srsp-2020-12.
• 11. Magryta-Mut, B. (2022) Port oil terminal operation cost and system safety joint optimization. In: K. Kołowrocki et al. (Eds). Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes. Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2022. Gdynia, Poland: Gdynia Maritime University, pp. 127–146, doi:10.26408/srsp-2022-10.
• 12. Magryta-Mut, B. (2023a) Safety and Operation Cost Optimization of Port and Maritime Transportation System. PhD Thesis (in preparation).
• 13. Magryta-Mut, B. (2023b) Operation Cost Optimization of Complex Technical System. European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2023. Southampton, Great Britain (under review).
• 14. Tang, H., Yin, B.Q. & Xi, H.S. (2007) Error bounds of optimization algorithms for semi-Markov decision processes. International Journal of Systems Science 38(9), pp. 725– 736.
• 15. Xue, J. (1985) On multi-state system analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 34, pp. 329–337.
• 16. Xue, J. & Yang, K. (1995) Dynamic reliability analysis of coherent multi-state systems. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 4(44), pp. 683–688.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).