Times series analysis of road safety trends at the regional level in Poland

• Autorzy: Żukowska J.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/jok-2015-0027

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analizy bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego na poziomie regionalnym w Polsce z zastosowaniem szeregów czasowych

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents possibility of applying a structural times series modeling with explanatory and intervention variables as a tool capable for explaining the changes in the monthly number of fatalities and seriously injured in traffic accidents. The analysis covers regional level and takes into consideration traffic accidents data of two regions: Pomorskie and Warmia-Mazury. In addition short-term forecasts for the two regions were developed and verified.

PL

Artykuł prezentuje możliwości zastosowania modeli strukturalnych szeregów czasowych do analizy zmian poziomu bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego mierzonego liczbą ofiar śmiertelnych i ciężko rannych w wypadkach drogowych. Analiza obejmuje poziom regionalny i wykorzystano do niej dane o zdarzeniach drogowych z dwóch województw: pomorskiego i warmińsko-mazurskiego. Dodatkowo wykonano i zweryfikowano również krótkoterminowe prognozy danych miesięcznych.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

time series modeling; road safety; KSI killed and seriously injured; forecasting

PL

modele szeregów czasowych; bezpieczeństwo ruchu drogowego; KSI ofiary śmiertelne i ciężko ranne; prognozowanie

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONBiN
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: No. 2 (34)
• Strony: 97--108
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 21 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Żukowska J.

• Politechnika Gdańska

Bibliografia

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