Forecast Models for Road Traffic Noise in The Year 2050 as a Basis for the Development of Measures to Reduce Noise in Urban Areas

• Autorzy: Evli-Fründt Rumeysa , Willems Wolfgang M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.29227/IM-2024-02-44

Warianty tytułu

PL

Modele prognoz hałasu drogowego w roku 2050 jako podstawa do opracowania działań na rzecz redukcji hałasu w obszarach miejskich

• Konferencja: 9th World Multidisciplinary Congress on Civil Engineering, Architecture, and Urban Planning - WMCCAU 2024 : 2-6.09.2024
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The German Climate Protection Act aims to reduce greenhouse gases. The focus is on harmful emissions, while noise, which can also lead to physiological and psychological disorders, has been neglected. An effective transformation of the transport sector requires long-term developments in the economy, society, politics and technology. The complexity of these future developments leads to high planning uncertainty. Therefore, the scenario technique is used as a method of futurology. The aim of this research is to analyse the development of urban noise for the year 2050. The purpose is to provide an instrument for future planning of noise abatement in road traffic. As a basis, key factors are identified, described and analysed, whereby a long-term horizon and megatrends are considered. Taking into account greenhouse gas reduction measures, national transport scenarios and socio-economic scenarios are included in order to forecast the development of road traffic noise up to 2050. Reference and stability scenarios are developed and the qualitative data from these scenarios are converted using statistical analysis into quantitative forecasts. The average traffic volume is calculated using multiple regression equations from the forecasts of traffic performance and traffic volume. The developments of the settlement-structural district types are determined by logarithmic trend lines. Based on these forecasts, planning situations are created. They deal with typical situations in the development of residential areas. These situations are combined with various road traffic noise sources to form an application case and presented graphically for the future scenarios. These are fictitious development plans in the sense of urban planning, which can be traced back to real planning cases in the future. For each planning situation, a noise immission plan is also simulated and the noise level differences compared. The noise immission plans for the year 2050 shows that without additional noise reduction measures, no significant reduction in noise levels can be expected. Despite the achievement of climate protection targets in the stability scenario, there are no perceivable differences in noise levels compared to the reference scenario. Therefore, noise reduction measures need to be increasingly considered in mobility concepts and transport development planning, as well as in spatial development planning.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

road traffic noise; urban noise; forecast model; noise immission plans; scenarios

PL

hałas drogowy; hałas miejski; modele prognostyczne; plany imisji hałasu; scenariusze

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Przeróbki Kopalin
• Czasopismo: Inżynieria Mineralna
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 2, no. 2
• Strony: art. no. 44
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Evli-Fründt Rumeysa

• Ruhr-University Bochum, Chair of Building Constructions and Building Physics,44801, Germany

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8756-5260

autor

Willems Wolfgang M.

• Technical University of Dortmund, Chair of Building Physics & Technical Building Services,44227, Germany

Bibliografia

• 1. K. Frey, A. Burger, K. Dziekan, C. Bunge and B. Lünenbürger, Verkehrswende für ALLE, so erreichen wir eine sozial gerechte und umweltverträgliche Mobilität (Umweltbundesamt, Dessau, 2020), ISSN 2342-8273.
• 2. J. Wothge, Die körperlichen und psychischen Wirkungen von Lärm (UMID-1, Dessau, 2016), pp.38-43.
• 3. J. Belz, R. Follmer, J. Hölscher, I. Stieß and G. Sunderer, Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland 2020, Ergebnisse einer repräsentativen Bevölkerungsumfrage (Umweltbundesamt, Dessau, 2022).
• 4. D. Mietzner, Strategische Vorausschau und Szenarioanalysen, Methodenevaluation und neue Ansätze (Gabler Verlag Wiesbaden, Wiesbaden, 2009).
• 5. DIN 18005:2023-07, “Schallschutz im Städtebau - Grundlagen und Hinweise für die Planung”, Beuth Verlag, Berlin, July 2023.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2025).