Use of regression analysis for comparative evaluation of accident hazard in Poland, by regions

• Autorzy: Prochowski L. , Gidlewski M. , Dąbrowski F.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0010.3140

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Calculations carried out made it possible to characterize changes in the accident hazard, in numerical terms, based on the course of the regression line. An analysis of the distribution, by regions, of the accident hazard and, above all, the showing of changes in this hazard is an important contribution to the actions taken to improve the road transport system. The rate of decrease in the number of accidents undergoes changes, which are particularly conspicuous in some voivodships (provinces) against the background of the general process of decline in the nationwide number of accidents. A graph to characterize this hazard has been presented, plotted with taking into account the changes in the number of accidents, recorded in monthly steps for a period of 7 years. The rate of these changes was also evaluated, in medium-term and short-term intervals. The calculation results were used to ascertain whether a decline in the total number of accidents in Poland is accompanied by similar changes taking place in individual regions. The symptoms of increasing share of the number of accidents that occur in a few regions in the total number of accidents taking place in Poland may be a cause for alarm.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

regression analysis; road accidents; accident hazard by regions

• Wydawca: Łukasiewicz Research Network - Institute of Aviation ; European Science Society of Powertrain and Transport KONES Poland ; Wydawnictwo Instytutu Technicznego Wojsk Lotniczych
• Czasopismo: Journal of KONES
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 24, No. 4
• Strony: 255--264
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Prochowski L.

• Military University of Technology Department of Mechanical Engineering Kaliskiego Street 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland tel.: [phone], fax: [phone]

autor

Gidlewski M.

• University of Technology and Humanities in Radom Institute of Operation and Maintenance of Machines and Vehicles Chrobrego Street 45, 26-600 Radom, Poland tel.: [phone]

autor

Dąbrowski F.

• Automotive Industry Institute Automotive Expertise and Training Centre Jagiellonska Street 55, 03-301 Warsaw, Poland tel.: [phone]

Bibliografia

• [1] Bąk-Gajda, D., Dangerous drivers’ behavior in road traffic – reasons, results, prevention, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2008.
• [2] Global status report on road safety, World Health Organization, Switzerland, Geneva 2015.
• [3] Guzek, M., Lozia, Z., Zdanowicz, P., Jurecki, R. S., Stańczyk, T. L., Research on behaviour of drivers in accident situation conducted in car driver simulator, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2009.
• [4] Owczarek, A. J., Kowalska, M., Epidemiologia wypadków komunikacyjnych w Polsce (Epidemiology of traffic accidents in Poland), Problemy Higieny i Epidemiologii, 95 (1), 2014.
• [5] Peden, M., Scurfield, R., Sleet, D., Mohan, D., Hyder, A. A., Jarawan, E., Colin, M., World report on road traffic injury prevention, World Health Organization, Geneva 2004.
• [6] Prochowski, L., Analysis of the impact of road category and day of the week on accident hazard in the road transport of goods in Poland, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2013.
• [7] Rachunek opłacalności działania na rzecz brd (Cost-effectiveness of actions taken to improve road traffic safety), World Bank Report for Poland, 2012, /www.worldbank.org/ pl/road-safety-in-poland/.
• [8] Spoerri, A., Egger, M., von Elm, E., Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43, 2011.
• [9] Urbanek, P., Walińska, E., Ekonomia i nauki o zarządzaniu w warunkach integracji gospodarczej (Economy and theories o management in the conditions of economic integration), Vol. 9, Jaździk-Osmulska, A. (ed.): Wycena kosztów wypadków i kolizji drogowych na sieci dróg w Polsce na koniec roku 2013 (Estimation of the costs of road accidents and collisions. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, 2014.
• [10] Woropay, M., Bojar, P., Structuring of the safety evaluation model for the road transport system, Journal of KONES Powertrain and Transport, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2008.
• [11] Zaliaś, A., Metody statystyczne (Statistical methods), PWE, Warszawa 2002. 264

Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).