Assessment of the WRF model in simulating a catastrophic flash flood

Spiridonov, Vlado; Ćurić, Mladjen; Grčić, Marija; Jakimovski, Boro; Spasovski, Milosh

doi:10.1007/s11600-023-01032-5

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Tytuł artykułu

Assessment of the WRF model in simulating a catastrophic flash flood

Autorzy

Spiridonov Vlado , Ćurić Mladjen , Grčić Marija , Jakimovski Boro , Spasovski Milosh

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-023-01032-5

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The present study examines the ability of the forecast (WRF) model to reproduce a heavy rainfall flash-flood event that hit the urban area of Skopje City, on August 6, 2016. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to evaluate the model’s performance in the simulation of this catastrophic event, which caused great material damage and the loss of 23 human lives. The simulations with the triple-nested WRF-ARW runs as well as the experiment using WRF-NMM dynamic core with the initial data of FNL GDAS showed better skills in a more precise qualitative and quantitative assessment of the total 24-h accumulated precipitation, the location and the relative intensities of rainfall. Explicit treatment of convection without parameterization significantly improves forecast accuracy and reduces forecast errors. The verification results, using standard tests, showed the model’s ability to reproduce the occurred flood. The correlation coefficient is higher for runs with explicit cumulus convection and 4 km resolution with the Yonsei PBL scheme and Thomson microphysics with aerosol climatology. In addition to the influence of the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere, orographic forcing on the development of a strong mesosystem is of great importance for the intensification of convective cells and the production of large amounts of precipitation.

Słowa kluczowe

heavy rainfall flash flood WRF model nested run verification

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2023

Tom

Vol. 71, no. 3

Strony

1347--1359

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 61 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Spiridonov Vlado

vlado.spiridonov@pmf.ukim.mk

Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Institute of Physics-Meteorology, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9731-3940

autor

Ćurić Mladjen

Physical Faculty, Institute of Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

autor

Grčić Marija

Vienna, Austria

autor

Jakimovski Boro

Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

autor

Spasovski Milosh

Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Institute of Physics-Meteorology, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-369f4ecc-6d28-4d13-93a2-3489ee43ecff