Investments in the shale oil industry under risk and uncertainty

• Autorzy: Pulkkinen S. , Valtin J.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15199/48.2018.12.01

Warianty tytułu

PL

Inwestowanie w paliwa łupkowe – ryzyko I niepewności

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper considers investments in the Estonian shale oil industry, analysing the economic reasonability of the construction of new oil production capacities on the example of a possible new shale oil plant in the Enefit Energiatootmine, the largest energy complex in Estonia. To estimate the profitability of the investments into the project, the methods of the Net Present Value and the Internal Rate of Return were used. Also, the scenario analysis was applied to assess the impact of uncertainty in the further development of the global oil market on the return on the investments.

PL

W artykule oceniono możliwości wykorzystania złóż palia łupkowgo wydobywanego w Estonii. Do tej oceny użyto takich narzedzi jak Net Present Value I Internal Rate of Return. Uwzględniono także niepewność ogólnego rynku paliw.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

shale oil industry; investments profitability evaluation; scenario analysis; break-even analysis

PL

paliwa łupkowe; paliwa łupkowe w energetyce

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo SIGMA-NOT
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Elektrotechniczny
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: R. 94, nr 12
• Strony: 1--5
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 17 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Pulkkinen S.

• Physical Market Specialist, Eesti Energia AS, Lelle Str. 22, 11318 Tallinn

autor

Valtin J.

• Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Electrical Power Engineering and Mechatronics, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn

Bibliografia

• [1] Statistics Estonia, Statistical database, Capacity and production of power plants. Available online at: http://pub.stat.ee/pxweb.2001/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=FE032&ti=CAPACITY+AND+PRODUCTION+OF+POWER+PLANTS&path=../I_Databas/Eonomy/07Energy/02Energy_consumption_and_production/01Annual_statistics/&lang=1.
• [2] Pulkkinen S., Valtin J., Evaluation of Investments Profitability in Conventional Power Generation Sector in Estonia, Conference Paper, European Energy Market (EEM) 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2015.7216768.
• [3] Wawrzyńczyk J., Problemy I kierunki innowacyjnych rozwiązań w polskiej energetyce, Przegląd Elektrotechniczny, 2017, nr. 11, 14-16.
• [4] Viru Keemia Grupp, Yearbook 2016. Available online at: http://www.vkg.ee/eng/company/reporting/yearbooks.
• [5] Speight J.G, Shale Oil Production Processes, Gulf Professional Publishing, Elsevier, United Kingdom, Oxford 2012.
• [6] Aarna I . , Developments in Production of Synthetic Fuels Out of Estonian Oil Shale, Energy & Environment, 22(5), 541-552. http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.22.5.541.
• [7] Enefit, Enefit shale oil technology. Available online at: https://www.enefit.jo/en/project/production-plant.
• [8] Eesti Energia. Annual Report 2012. Available online at: https://www.energia.ee/-doc/8457332/ettevottest/investorile/pdf/annualreport_2012_eng.pdf.
• [9] Eesti Energia, Annual Report 2016. Available online at: https://www.energia.ee/-doc/8457332/ettevottest/investorile/pdf/annual_report_2016_eng.pdf.
• [10] Platts, The European Fuel Oil Price: Oil Price Assessments. Available: https://www.platts.com/price-assessments/oil/fuel-oil.
• [11] International Energy Agency, IEA online data, Monthly data: oil. Available online at: https://www.iea.org/statistics/monthlystatistics/monthlyoilstatistics/.
• [12] International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017, France, Paris 2017.
• [13] Dayananda D., Irons R., Harrison S., Herbohn J . , Rowland P., Capital Budgeting: Financial Appraisal of Investment Projects, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom, Cambridge 2002.
• [14] Riigikogu, Environmental Charges Act. Available online at: https://www.riigiteataja.ee/en/eli/ee/513012014001/consolide/current.
• [15] Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Estonia, Long-term economic forecast up to 2070. Available online at: https://www.rahandusministeerium.ee/et/riigieelarve-jamajandus/ majandusprognoosid.
• [16] Eesti Energia. Annual Report 2014. Available online at: https://www.energia.ee/-doc/8457332/ettevottest/investorile/pdf/annual_report_2014_eng.pdf.
• [17] Bank of Estonia, Key Economic Indicators. Available online at: http://statistika.eestipank.ee/?lng=en#listMenu/2053/treeMenu/MAJANDUSKOOND.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).