Prediction of vehicle ownership growth using Gompertz model, case study of Hungary

• Autorzy: Torok Adam

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/czoto-2022-0017

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

forecast; market penetration; passenger cars

PL

samochody osobowe; pojazdy autonomiczne; funkcja Gompertza

• Wydawca: De Gruyter
• Czasopismo: System Safety : Human - Technical Facility - Environment
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 4, nr 1
• Strony: 164--169
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 12 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Torok Adam

• Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6727-1540

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).