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Abstrakty
Ship traffic is one of the factors that is presented in almost all of the existing grounding models, and is considered as one of the affecting factors on the likelihood of grounding accident. This effect in grounding accident is mostly accepted by the experts as a common sense or simply by just generalizing the ship‐ship collision cases to grounding accidents. There is no available research on the actual causal link between the ship traffic and grounding accident in the literature. In this paper, authors have utilized the statistical analysis on historical grounding accident data in the Gulf of Finland between the years 1989 and 2010 and the AIS data of the same area in year 2010, as the source of ship traffic data, to investigate the possible existence of any correlation between the ship traffic and the grounding accident. The results show that for the studied area (Gulf of Finland) there is no correlation between the traffic density and the grounding accident. However, the possibility of the existence of minor relation between the traffic distribution and grounding accident is shown by the result. This finding, however, needs further investigation for more clarification.
Słowa kluczowe
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
119--124
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 21 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
autor
- Aalto University, Department of Applied Mechanics, Espoo, Finland
autor
autor
- Aalto University, Department of Applied Mechanics, Espoo, Finland
Bibliografia
- 1. Fujii, Y. and R. Shiobara, The Analysis of Traffic Accidents. The Journal of Navigation, 1971. 24(4): p. 534‐543.
- 2. Pedersen, P.T. Collision and Grounding Mechanics. In Proceedings of WEMT ʹ95ʹ. 1995. Copenhagen, Denmark: The Danish Society of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.
- 3. Simonsen, B.C., Mechanics of Ship Grounding, in Department of Naval Architecture and Offshore Engineering. 1997, Technical University of Denmark: Kongens Lyngby.
- 4. COWI, Risk Analysis for Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm. 2008, Danish Maritime Authority: Kongens, Lyngby.
- 5. Kristiansen, S., Traffic‐Based Models, in Maritime Transportation‐Safety Management and Risk Analysis. 2005.
- 6. Mazaheri A., et al., A Decision Support Tool for VTS Centers to Detect Grounding Candidates. TransNav ‐ International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 337‐343, 2012
- 7. Judson, B., Collision risk circumstances and traffic routeing in the approaches to the strait of Juan de Fuca, in 7th International VTS Symposium. 1992: Vancouver, Canada.
- 8. Goerlandt, F. and P. Kujala, Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2011. 96(1): p. 91‐107.
- 9. van Dorp, J.R. and J.R.W. Merrick, On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation. Annals of Operations Research, 2009: p. 1‐29.
- 10. Fujii, Y., et al., Some Factors Affecting the Frequency of Accidents in Marine Traffic: I‐ The Diameter of Evasion for Crossing Encounters, II‐ The probability of Stranding, III‐ The Effect of Darkness of the Probability of Collision and Stranding. The Journal of Navigation, 1974. 27(2): p. 239‐247.
- 11. Mazaheri, A. and J. Ylitalo, Comments on geometrical modeling of ship grounding, in 5th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships (ICCGS). 2010: Espoo, Finland.
- 12. Otto, S., et al., Elements of Risk Analysis for Collision and Grounding of a RoRo Passenger Ferry. Marine Structures, 2002. 15: p. 461‐474.
- 13. Karlsson, M., F.M. Rasmussen, and L. Frisk, Verification of ship collision frequency model, in Ship Collision Analysis. 1998: Balkema, Rotterdam. p. 117‐121.
- 14. Ramboll, Navigational safety in the Sound between Denmark and Sweden (Oresund). 2006, Ramboll Danmark A/S: Denmark.
- 15. Gucma, L. The method of navigational risk assessment on waterways based on generalised real time simulation data. in International conference on marine simulation and ship maneuverability. 2006. Terschelling, Netherlands.
- 16. Kaneko, F. A method for estimation of grounding frequency by using trajectories of ships and geometry of seabed. in International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships (ICCGS). 2010. Espoo, Finland.
- 17. Lehman, A., JMP for Basic Univariate and Multivariate Statistics : A Step‐by‐step Guide. 2005, Cary, NC, USA: SAS Press.
- 18. Seong, Y. C., et al., The relation with width of fairway and marine traffic flow. TransNav‐International Journal of Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation 2012. 6(3): p. 317‐321.
- 19. Kujala, P., et al., Analysis of the Marine Traffic Safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2009. 94(8): p. 1349‐1357.
- 20. Pearl, J., Causal inference in statistics: An overview, R‐ 350, Editor. 2009, Computer Science Department, University of California: Los Angeles. p. 96‐146.
- 21. Neufeld, E. and S. Kristtorn, Does non‐correlation imply non‐causation. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2007. 46: p. 257‐273.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
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