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Warianty tytułu
Construction project cost uncertainty: statistics is not enough
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Zjawisko niedotrzymania budżetu w przedsięwzięciach budowlanych jest powszechne na całym świecie. Jednym z wyjaśnień przyczyny tego zjawiska jest błąd poznawczy - mniej lub bardziej świadoma tendencyjność oszacowań dokonywanych przez osoby zaangażowane w planowanie. W tej sytuacji rozwiązaniem ma być eliminacja subiektywizmu w planowaniu przez zastosowanie Reference Class Forecasting - czyli planowania rezerwy budżetowej w oparciu o opisane statystycznie doświadczenia ze względnym przekroczeniem kosztów w podobnych, już zrealizowanych inwestycjach. Artykuł jest dyskusją wad i zalet stosowania RCF z zamiarem poprawy przewidywalności kosztu przedsięwzięć.
Under-budgeting in construction projects is a phenomenon observable worldwide. One of its explanations is cognitive error, so a more or less conscious bias in the estimates provided by the planners. Reference Class Forecasting is proposed to eliminate planning subjectivity. It consists in planning contingencies based on the distribution of relative cost overruns observed in similar completed projects. The paper is a discussion of the merits and demerits of relying on RCF to improve the predictability of project cost.
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
116--118
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 23 poz., il.
Twórcy
autor
- Politechnika Lubelska, Wydział Budownictwa i Architektury
Bibliografia
- [1] A. Dykman, N. Bakshi, M. Donn, Interpreting traditional cost contingency methods in the construction industry, Proc. Int. Conf. Archit. Sci. Assoc. 2019-Novem (2019) 165-174.
- [2] E. Plebankiewicz, D. Wieczorek, Adaptation of a cost overrun risk prediction model to the type of construction facility, Symmetry (Basel). 12 (2020) 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12101739.
- [3] P. Bakhshi, A. Touran, An Overview of Budget Contingency Calculation Methods in Construction Industry, Procedia Eng. 85 (2014) 52-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PROENG.2014.10.528.
- [4] B. Flyvbjerg, M. Skamris Holm, S. Buhl, Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?, J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 68 (2002) 279-295. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360208976273.
- [5] D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures, 1977.
- [6] D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, A. Tversky’, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Source Econom. 47 (1979) 263-292.
- [7] M. Wachs, When planners lie with numbers, J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 55 (1989) 476-479.
- [8] M. Wachs, Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy, Bus. Prof. Ethics J. 9 (1990) 141-157. https://doi.org/10.5840/bpej199091/215.
- [9] A.I. Amadi, Towards methodological adventure in cost overrun research: linking process and product, Int. J. Constr. Manag. 23 (2023) 528-541. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2021.1894632.
- [10] M. Siemiatycki, The making and impacts of a classic text in megaproject management: The case of cost overrun research, Int. J. Proj. Manag. 36 (2018) 362-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.07.003.
- [11] B. Flyvbjerg, Cost overruns and demand shortfalls in urban rail and other infrastructure, Transp. Plan. Technol. 30 (2007) 9-30. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060701207938.
- [12] A. Ansar, B. Flyvbjerg, A. Budzier, D. Lunn, Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development, Energy Policy. 69 (2014) 43-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2013.10.069.
- [13] B. Flyvbjerg, Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice, Eur. Plan. Stud. 16 (2008) 3-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310701747936.
- [14] B. Flyvbjerg, Quality control and due diligence in project management: Getting decisions right by taking the outside view, Int. J. Proj. Manag. 31 (2013) 760-774. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJPROMAN.2012.10.007.
- [15] B. Flyvbjerg, C.K. Hon, W.H. Fok, Reference class forecasting for Hong Kong’s major roadworks projects, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Civ. Eng. 169 (2016) 17-24. https://doi.org/10.1680/jcien.15.00075.
- [16] The British Department for Transport, Procedures for dealing with optimism bias in transport planning. Guidance Document, June 2004.
- [17] Transport Infrastructure Ireland, Reference Class Forecasting. Guidelines for use in connection with National Roads Projects, 2009.
- [18] S.-S. Leu, Y. Liu, P.-L. Wu, Project Cost Overrun Risk Prediction Using Hidden Markov Chain Analysis, Buildings. 13 (2023) 667. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13030667.
- [19] P.E.D. Love, D.D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 113 (2018) 357-368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019.
- [20] L. Ika, J.K. Pinto, P.E.D. Love, G. Pache, Bias versus error: why projects fall short, J. Bus. Strategy. 44 (2022) 67-75. https://doi.org/10.1108/JBS-11-2021-0190.
- [21] J. Batselier, M. Vanhoucke, Practical Application and Empirical Evaluation of Reference Class Forecasting for Project Management, Proj. Manag. J. 47 (2016) 36-51. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697281604700504.
- [22] J.E. Park, Curbing cost overruns in infrastructure investment: Has reference class forecasting delivered its promised success?, Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 21 (2021) 120-136. https://doi.org/10.18757/EJTIR.2021.21.2.5504.
- [23] P.E.D. Love, L.A. Ika, D.D. Ahiaga-Dagbui, On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 126 (2019) 397-408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.013.
Uwagi
Artykuł umieszczony w części "Builder Science"
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-2cc5bfd5-acd5-4b0a-bc52-3a01aefc9bf9