The use of hybrid methods for change points and trends detection in rainfall series of northern Algeria

Zerouali, Bilel; Chettih, Mohamed; Abda, Zaki; Mesbah, Mohamed; Djemai, Mohammed

doi:10.1007/s11600-020-00466-5

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

The use of hybrid methods for change points and trends detection in rainfall series of northern Algeria

Autorzy

Zerouali Bilel , Chettih Mohamed , Abda Zaki , Mesbah Mohamed , Djemai Mohammed

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-020-00466-5

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The aim of this research is to assess relatively new hybrid methods for changes points and trends detection on rainfall series: Dynamic Programming Bayesian Change Point Approach (BA), Şen’s innovative trend method (ITM) and its double (D-ITM) and triple (T-ITM) version using the multi-scale analysis of the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) as a coupling method. Three representatives rainfall stations of northern Algeria were analysed at annual scale during the period 1920–2011. Moreover, correlation and spectral analysis (CSA) was applied for periodicity analysis. The CSA indicates the dominance of interannual to multidecadal rainfall periodicity fuctuations (2-years, 5-years and 20-years) characterising long term structured processes. Moreover, an abrupt downward trend with signifcant probability was detected from the 1970s with a relatively wet period between the periods 1950–1970 and 2001–2011. The latter is observed in particular in the central and eastern stations, well-explained by the BA-DWT. The results showed that the comparison results from diferent modelling approaches found that the hybrid models (BA-DWT, ITM-DWT, D-ITM-DWT, T-ITM-DWT) often perform better than the conventional approach (BA, ITM, D-ITM, T-ITM), where the computation time is very reasonable. The analysis revealed that information stemming from discrete wavelet spectrums signifcantly increased the accuracy of the methods for detecting hidden change points and trends.

Słowa kluczowe

trends hybrid methods discrete wavelet transform Algeria change point

trendy metody hybrydowe dyskretna transformata falkowa Algieria punkt zmiany

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2020

Tom

Vol. 68, no. 5

Strony

1443--1460

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 78 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Zerouali Bilel

b.zerouali@lagh-univ.dz

Research Laboratory of Water Resources, Soil and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Amar Telidji University, P. O. Box 37.G, 03000 Laghouat, Algeria

autor

Chettih Mohamed

Research Laboratory of Water Resources, Soil and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Amar Telidji University, P. O. Box 37.G, 03000 Laghouat, Algeria

autor

Abda Zaki

Research Laboratory of Water Resources, Soil and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Amar Telidji University, P. O. Box 37.G, 03000 Laghouat, Algeria

autor

Mesbah Mohamed

LGBO, Laboratory, Earth Sciences Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediene, BP 32, 16311 Bab Ezzouar, Algeria

autor

Djemai Mohammed

LGEA, Laboratory of Geomaterials, Environment and Development, Department of Civil Engineering, Mouloud Mammeri University, BP no 10.RP, Hasnaoua, Tizi-Ouzou, Algeria

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