Fuzzy inference system and prediction

• Autorzy: Žák L. , Valliš D.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper describes the implementation of fuzzy set theory and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) for prediction of electric load. The proposed technique utilizes fuzzy rules to incorporate historical weather and load data. The use of fuzzy logic effectively handles the load variations due to special events. The fuzzy logic has been extensively tested on actual data obtained from the Czech Electric Power Company (ˇCEZ) for 24-hour ahead prediction. Test results indicate that the fuzzy rule base can produce results better in accuracy than artificial neural networks (ANNs) method.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

fuzzy sets; fuzzy logic; fuzzy inference system; prediction implementation; employees

PL

zbiory rozmyte; logika rozmyta; system wnioskowania rozmyty; pracownicy

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Journal of TransLogistics
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: Vol. 1, nr 1
• Strony: 193--202
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 14 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Žák L.

• University of Technology in Brno Mathematical Institute Technick´a 2, 616 69, Brno Czech Republic

autor

Valliš D.

• University of Defence in Brno Department of Combat and Special Vehicles Kounicova 65, 662 10, Brno, Czech Republic

Bibliografia

• [1] Mamdani, E.H.: Applications of fuzzy logic to approximate reasoning using linguistic synthesis, IEEE Transactions on Computers, Vol. 26, No. 12, pp.1182-1191 (1977).
• [2] Sugeno, M.: Industrial applications of fuzzy control, Elsevier Science Pub. Co. (1985).
• [3] Zadeh, L.A.: The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning, Parts 1, 2, and 3, Information Sciences, Academic Press, New York (1975).
• [4] Žák, L. Fuzzy Objects and Fuzzy Clustering. Proc. 8th Zittau Fuzzy Colloquium, Zittau, 2000, pp 293–302, ISBN 3-00-006723-X.
• [5] Muhammad Riaz Khan, Libor Žák and Čestmír Ondrůšek, Fuzzy Logic Based Short Term Electric Load Forecasting, ELEKTRO 2001, 4th International Scientific Conference, Žilina, 2001, pp 19-25, ISBN 80-7100-836-2.
• [6] Žák, L. Application of Fuzzy Logic to Time Series. In Aplimat 2005, 4nd International Conference. Bratislava: FME STU Bratislava, 2005. p. 549-555. ISBN: 80-969264-1-1.
• [7] D. Valliš, L. Žák and O. Pokora, “Contribution to system failure occurence prediction and to system remaining useful life estimation based on oil field data,” Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, vol. 229, no. 1, pp. 36-45, 2015.
• [8] D. Mazurkiewicz, “Computer-aided maintenance and reliability management systems for conveyor belts,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 377-382, 2014.
• [9] D. Mazurkiewicz, “Tests of extendability and strength of adhesive-sealed joints in the context of developing a computer system for monitoring the condition of belt joints during conveyor operation,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodność - Maintenance and Reliability, vol. 3, pp. 34-39, 2010.
• [10] A. Glowacz, “Diagnostics of direct current machine based on analysis of acoustic signals with the use of symlet wavelet transform and modified classifier based on words,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 554-558, 2014.
• [11] A. Glowacz, “Diagnostics of synchronous motor based on analysis of acoustic signals with the use of line spectral frequencies and k-nearest neighbor classifier,” Archives of Acoustics, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 189-194, 2014.
• [12] S. Cornak et al. (2011, November). Lifetime extension of engine oil using additives. Presented at MendelNet. [online]. Avaiable: https://mnet.mendelu.cz/mendelnet2011/mendelnet 2011 fulltext.pdf
• [13] D. Valliš, L. Žák, O. Pokora and P. Lánský, “Perspective analysis outcomes of selected tribodiagnostic data used as input for condition based maintenance,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.07.026i [2015-09-01]
• [14] D. Valliš, M. Koucký and L. Žák, “On approaches for non-direct determination of system deterioration,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 33–41, 2012.