A VECM analysis of the impact of economic growth and investment on electricity consumption in indonesia

• Autorzy: Lateko Andi Abdul Halik , Akil Yusri Syam

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15199/48.2024.02.28

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza VECM dotycząca wpływu wzrostu gospodarczego i inwestycji na zużycie energii elektrycznej w Indonezji

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis to investigate the influence of economic growth (GDP) and investment (FDI) on electricity consumption (EPC) in Indonesia. By examining annual data from 1971-2019, the study explores the short-term dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. A negative relationship is observed between EPC and GDP in the long run, while a negative relationship exists between EPC, GDP, and FDI in the short term. The short-run analysis reveals that GDP significantly influences EPC at the three-year horizon, and FDI has a significant negative effect on EPC at the one- and two-year horizons. Another result concerning the causality test indicate a unidirectional relationship between EPC and GDP, while EPC and FDI exhibit bi-directional causality. The findings underscore the influential role of GDP and FDI in driving changes in EPC. Understanding these relationships is crucial for policymakers and energy planners in effectively managing electricity demand, infrastructure investments, and sustainable economic growth. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing insights specific to Indonesia, guiding decision-making processes regarding energy infrastructure development, energy efficiency measures, and sustainable economic development.

PL

W artykule wykorzystano analizę Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) w celu zbadania wpływu wzrostu gospodarczego (PKB) i inwestycji (BIZ) na zużycie energii elektrycznej (EPC) w Indonezji. Analizując dane roczne z lat 1971-2019, badanie bada krótkoterminową dynamikę i długookresowe relacje równowagi między zmiennymi. W długim okresie obserwuje się ujemną zależność między EPC a PKB, podczas gdy w krótkim okresie istnieje ujemna zależność między EPC, PKB i BIZ. Analiza krótkookresowa ujawnia, że PKB istotnie wpływa na EPC w horyzoncie trzyletnim, a BIZ mają znaczący negatywny wpływ na EPC w horyzoncie rocznym i dwuletnim. Kolejny wynik dotyczący testu przyczynowości wskazuje na jednokierunkową zależność między EPC a PKB, podczas gdy EPC i BIZ wykazują dwukierunkową przyczynowość. Odkrycia podkreślają wpływową rolę PKB i BIZ w napędzaniu zmian w EPC. Zrozumienie tych zależności ma kluczowe znaczenie dla decydentów i planistów energetycznych w skutecznym zarządzaniu zapotrzebowaniem na energię elektryczną, inwestycjami w infrastrukturę i zrównoważonym wzrostem gospodarczym. Badania te wnoszą wkład do istniejącej literatury, dostarczając spostrzeżeń specyficznych dla Indonezji, kierując procesami decyzyjnymi dotyczącymi rozwoju infrastruktury energetycznej, środków efektywności energetycznej i zrównoważonego rozwoju gospodarczego.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

vector error correction model; economic growth; investment; electricity consumption; Indonesia

PL

vector error correction model; wzrost gospodarczy; inwestycje; zużycie energii elektrycznej; Indonezja

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo SIGMA-NOT
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Elektrotechniczny
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: R. 100, nr 2
• Strony: 140--144
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 21 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Lateko Andi Abdul Halik

• Department of Electrical Engineering, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9002-131X

autor

Akil Yusri Syam

• Department of Electrical Engineering, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2025).