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Avoiding collisions, enhancing marine safety – a simplified model for the Aegean Sea

Treść / Zawartość
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Ship collision is a hazardous event within the chain of maritime transport. Collisions may result in human losses, adverse economic consequences, and environmental damages causing significant impact to local societies and related activities. A major factor in any risk analysis concerning ship collisions is the probability of these collisions occurring. The purpose of this study is to assess the probability of ship-to-ship collision in the Aegean Sea. The basic concept of the developed model is to (statistically) simulate traffic flow in the area of interest and determine the collision candidates; this will be implemented in a pilot study in a segment of the Aegean Sea. The input of this effort is based on values that are extracted from statistical analysis of the international fleet in combination with the study of maps depicting traffic flow in the studied area. Hence, it does not employ detailed AIS data. The obtained results are presented and their agreement with actual incidents is discussed in depth. The paper concludes with interesting insights of the aforementioned tasks.
Rocznik
Strony
78--85
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 28 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
  • National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Maritime Risk Group, Laboratory for Maritime Transport
autor
  • National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Maritime Risk Group, Laboratory for Maritime Transport
Bibliografia
  • 1. ANDRITSOPOULOS, A. (2011) Analysis of Maritime Accidents in the Aegean Sea. Diploma Thesis. Athens, Greece: National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.
  • 2. BILLINGSLEY, P. (1995) Probability and Measure. Willey Series, pp. 357–370.
  • 3. CHRYSAVGIS, CH. (2011) Analysis of Maritime Accidents regarding General Cargo Ships. Diploma Thesis. Athens, Greece: National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.
  • 4. COWI (2008) Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area Around Bornholm. Kongens Lyngby, Denmark: COWI A/S, Report No.: P-65775–002, January 25, 2008.
  • 5. DELIKAROGLOU, D. (2008) The Hellenic Positioning System (HEPOS) and its foreseeable implications on the Spatial Data Infrastructure in Greece. Tech. Chron. Sci. J. TCG I (1–2). pp. 95–103.
  • 6. FOWLER, T.G. & SØRGÅRD, E. (2000) Modeling ship transportation risk. Risk Analysis. 20(2). pp. 225–244.
  • 7. FRIIS-HANSEN, P. & SIMONSEN, B.C. (2002) GRACAT: Software for grounding and collision risk analysis. Marine Structures. 15 (4–5). pp. 383–401.
  • 8. FUJII, Y., YAMANOUCHI, H. & MIZUKI, N. (1970) On the fundamentals of marine traffic control. Part 1: probabilities of collision and evasive actions. Electronic Navigation Research Institute Papers. 2. pp. 1–16.
  • 9. GOERLANDT, F. & KUJALA, P. (2011) Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 96. pp. 91–107.
  • 10. GOERLANDT, F. & KUJALA, P. (2014) On the reliability and validity of ship–ship collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk. Safety Science. 62. pp. 348– 365.
  • 11. GUCMA, L. (2003) Models of ship’s traffic flow for the safety of marine engineering structures evaluation. In: Beford T. van Gelder, PHAJM, editors. Proceedings of the ESREL. Lisse: Swets & Zeitlinger. pp. 713–8.
  • 12. IMO (2002) COLREG: Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972, as amended.
  • 13. IMO (2007a). Formal safety assessment – Consolidated text of the guidelines for formal safety assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process (MSC/Circ. 1023- MEPC/Circ.392).
  • 14. IMO (2007b). Formal Safety Assessment FSA – Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Carriers. London: International Maritime Organization, Document No.: MSC83/INF.3, July 3.
  • 15. KLEMOLA, E., KURONEN, J., KALLI, J., AROLA, T., HÄNNINEN, M., LEHIKOINEN, A. et al. (2009) A crossdisciplinary approach to minimizing risks of maritime transport in the Gulf of Finland. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research. 2(4). pp. 343–63.
  • 16. KUJALA, P., HÄNNINEN, M., AROLA, T. & YLITALO, J. (2009) Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94 (8). pp. 1349–1357.
  • 17. MACDUFF, T. (1974) The probability of vessel collisions. Ocean Industry. pp. 144–148.
  • 18. MARTINS, M.R. & MATURANA, M.C. (2013) Application of Bayesian belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 110. pp. 89–109.
  • 19. MONTEWKA, J., GOERLANDT, F. & KUJALA, P. (2014) On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA). Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 127. pp. 77–85.
  • 20. MONTEWKA, J., GOERLANDT, F., LAMMI, H. & KUJALA, P. (2011) A Method for Assessing a Causation Factor for a Geometrical MDTC Model for Ship‐Ship Collision Probability Estimation. TransNav. 5, 3. pp. 365–373.
  • 21. MONTEWKA, J., HINZ, T., KUJALA, P. & MATUSIAK, J. (2010) Probability modeling of vessel collisions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95(5). pp. 573–89.
  • 22. MOU, J.M., TAK, C. & LIGTERINGEN, H. (2010) Study on Collision Avoidance in Busy Waterways by Using AIS Data. Ocean Engineering. 37. pp. 483–490.
  • 23. NOMIKOS, A. (2012) Analysis of Maritime Accidents regarding Tankers. Diploma Thesis. Athens, Greece: National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.
  • 24. OTTO, S., PEDERSEN, PT., SAMUELIDES, M. & SAMES, P.C. (2002) Elements of risk analysis for collision and grounding of a RoRo passenger ferry. Marine Structures. 15(4–5). pp. 461–74.
  • 25. PEDERSEN, P.T. (1995) Collision and grounding mechanics. Danish Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers. pp. 125–57.
  • 26. PRZYWARTY, M. (2008) Probabilistic model of ships navigational safety assessment on large sea areas. In: Proceedings of the 16th international symposium on electronics in transport. Ljubljana, Slovenia, 9–10 October 2008.
  • 27. TSOLA, E. (2011) Analysis of Maritime Accidents regarding Tankers of 5.000-20.000DWT. Diploma Thesis. Athens, Greece: National Technical University of Athens, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering.
  • 28. ZHANG, D., YAN, X.P., YANG, Z.L., WALL, A.D. & WANG, J. (2013) Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 118. pp. 93–105.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-265a1aea-eea5-477a-afd3-bc4d391ebeea
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