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Marine traffic, accidents, and underreporting in the Baltic Sea

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
This paper presents an overview of ship traffic volume and accidents in the Baltic Sea with a special focus on the Gulf of Finland. The most common accidents are groundings and collisions, usually reported to be caused by human error. The annual number of Baltic Sea accidents reported to HELCOM varied from 34–54 for collisions and 30–60 for groundings. The number of yearly port calls varied from 468–505 thousand with a peak in 2008. Exact port call data could not be found for all ports and hence had to be estimated. The number of line crossingings in HELCOM AIS data was found to be a good, rough surrogate measure for the total number of port calls and could be used if more precise port call data was not available. By analyzing two separate accident databases, an estimate for accident underreporting was calculated. Different statistical methods yielded an underreporting rate in the range of 40–50%. Lastly, the true number of accidents was estimated, based on the estimated underreporting percentage for the Baltic Sea. Based on these results, the true number of true accidents should be first estimated if accident statistics are used in building or validating maritime risk models. When using such models or accidents statistics in decision-making, the underlying uncertainty in the accident statistics should be taken into account as the underreporting frequency estimates are only approximations of the real number of accidents.
Słowa kluczowe
Rocznik
Strony
163--177
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 33 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
  • Aalto University School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Marine Technology Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety 5 A Puumiehenkuja, 02150 Espoo, Finland, P.O.Box 14300, FI-00076 Aalto
autor
  • Finnair Plc 3 Lentäjäntie, 01530 Vantaa, Finland
autor
  • Aalto University School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Marine Technology Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety 5 A Puumiehenkuja, 02150 Espoo, Finland, P.O.Box 14300, FI-00076 Aalto
Bibliografia
  • 1. Administration of Port of Saint Petersburg (2014) (Administraziya morsogo porta Bolshoy port Sankt-Peterburg) Arhiv dannyh po gruzoborotu. [Online] Available from: http:// www.pasp.ru/arhiv [Accessed: March 25, 2014]
  • 2. BPL (2014) Baltic Port List. Specific BPL data obtained directly from Irina Walhström, contact person for BPL from University of Turku.
  • 3. Brittan, S. & Böhning, D. (2009) Estimators in capture– recapture studies with two sources. Advances in Statistical Analysis 93. pp. 23–47. DOI 10.1007/s10182-008-0085-y.
  • 4. ESIMO (2014) Edinaya rosudarstvennaya sistema informazii ob ostanovke v mirom okeane. Morskie porty Rossii, Baltiyskiy bassejn. [Online] Available from: http://www.morinfocenter.ru/rusports/ [Accessed: March 25, 2014]
  • 5. Eurostat (2014) Statistics transport database. [Online] Available from: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/database [Accessed: March 25, 2014]
  • 6. Finnish Transport Agency (2014) Specific data obtained directly from Vesa Lasaroff by e-mail.
  • 7. Goerlandt, F. & Kujala, P. (2011) Traffic based ship collision probability and modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 96 (1). pp. 91–107.
  • 8. Häkkinen, J. & Posti, A. (2013) Overview of Maritime Accidents Involving Chemicals Worldwide and in the Baltic Sea. 10th Jubilee International Conference Transnav 2013 on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation.
  • 9. Häkkinen, J., Malk, V., Posti, A., Penttinen, O.P., Mäkelä, R. & Kiiski, A. (2013) Environmental risk assessment of the most commonly transported chemicals – Case Finnish coastal areas. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs 12 (2). pp. 147–160.
  • 10. Hänninen, M., Kujala, P., Ylitalo, J. & Kuronen, J. (2011) Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. 9th International Navigational Symposium on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, TRANS-NAV 2011, Gdynia, Poland.
  • 11. Hänninen, M., Mazaheri, A., Kujala, P., Montewka, J., Laaksonen, P., Salmiovirta, M. & Klang, M. (2014) Expert elicitation of a navigation service implementation effects on ship groundings and collisions in the Gulf of Finland. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, Journal of Risk and Reliability 228 (1). February 2014, pp. 19–28. doi:10.1177/1748006X13494533.
  • 12. Hänninen, M., Sladojevic, M., Tirunagari, S. & Kujala, P. (2013) Feasibility of collision and grounding data for probabilistic accident modeling. Accepted to the 6th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ship and Offshore Structures (ICCGS2013), Trondheim, Norway, June 17–19, 2013.
  • 13. Hassel, M., Asbjørnslett, B. & Hole, L. (2011) Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases. Accident Analysis & Prevention 43 (6). pp. 2053–2063.
  • 14. HELCOM (2008) The Helsinki Commission. Report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area for the year 2007. [Online] Available from: http://www.helcom.fi/stc/files/ shipping/shipping_accidents_2007.pdf [Accessed: April 03, 2013]
  • 15. HELCOM (2009) The Helsinki Commission. Overview of the shipping traffic in the Baltic Sea for the year 2008. [Online] Available from: http://www.helcom.fi/stc/files/ shipping/shipping_accidents_2007.pdf [Accessed: April 12, 2013]
  • 16. HELCOM (2012) The Helsinki Commission. Report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea during 2011. [Online] Available from: http://www.helcom.fi/stc/files/ shipping/shipping_accidents_2011.pdf [Accessed: April 03, 2013]
  • 17. HELCOM (2013) The Helsinki Commission. Accidents and response. [Online] Available from: http://www.helcom.fi/ shipping/accidents/en_GB/accidents/ [Accessed: April 02, 2013]
  • 18. IMO (2002) International Maritime Organization. Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process. MSC/Circ.1023/MEPC/Circ.392, London.
  • 19. Itämeriportaali (2013) Itämeren jääolot. [Online] Available from: http://www.itameriportaali.fi/fi/tietoa/yleiskuvaus/jaa/ [Accessed: April 02, 2013]
  • 20. Kujala, P., Hänninen, M., Arola, T. & Ylitalo, J. (2009) Analysis of the Marine Traffic Safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94. pp. 1349–1357.
  • 21. Ladan, M. & Hänninen, M. (2012) Data Sources for Quantitative Marine Traffic Accident Modeling. Aalto University publication series SCIENCE + TECHNOLOGY 11/2012.
  • 22. Lecklin, T., Ryömä, R. & Kuikka, S. (2011) A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland. Marine Pollution Bulletin 62. pp. 2822–2835.
  • 23. Mazaheri, A., Montewka, J. & Kujala, P. (2014) Modeling the risk of ship grounding – A literature review from a risk management perspective. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs 13 (2). pp. 269–297.
  • 24. Milazzo, M. & Aven, T. (2012) An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 99. pp. 183–192.
  • 25. Montewka, J., Weckström, M. & Kujala, P. (2013) A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland. Marine Pollution Bulletin 76. pp.61–71.
  • 26. OGP (2010) International Association of Oil & Gas Producers. Water transport accident statistics. Report No. 434-10, Risk Assessment Data Directory. [Online] Available from: http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/434-10.pdf [Accessed: May 14, 2014]
  • 27. Psarros, G., Skjong, R. & Eide, M. (2010) Under-reporting of maritime accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 (2). pp. 619–625.
  • 28. Sormunen, O.-V., Goerlandt, F., Häkkinen, J., Post, A., Hänninen, M., Montewka, J., Ståhlberg, J. & Kujala, P. (2015) Uncertainty in maritime risk analysis: Extended case-study on chemical tanker collisions. Proc IMechE, Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment 229 (3). pp. 303–320.
  • 29. Thomas, M. & Skjong, R. (2009) Cost benefit analysis of inert gas systems for chemical and product tankers. Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, Honolulu, OMAE2009-79919.
  • 30. Trafi (2010) Finnish Transport Safety Agency. Finnish Merchant Fleet Statistics. Helsinki, Finland. [Online] Available from: http://www.trafi.fi/filebank/a/1381389036/fa97d3b- 90bcc7de74438fa3b179cfeec/13337-1617-774-Kauppalaivastotilasto_2009.pdf [Accessed: May 14, 2014]
  • 31. Trafi (2011) Finnish Transport Safety Agency. Maritime traffic accident statistics 2010 (in Finnish) [Online] Available from: http://www.trafi.fi/filebank/a/1322164797/6ce- 7133934c4017751894384eb04fc41/1616-721-Vesiliikenneonnettomuuksien_vuositilasto_2010.pdf [Accessed: May 30, 2013]
  • 32. TSB (2011) Transport Safety Board of Canada. Statistical Summary, Marine Occurrences 2010. [Online] Available from: http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/marine/2010/ss10.pdf [Accessed: April 04, 2016]
  • 33. Uggla, Y. (2007) Environmental Protection and the Freedom of the High Seas: The Baltic Sea as a PSSA from a Swedish perspective. Marine Policy 31 (3). pp. 251–257.
Uwagi
PL
Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniajacą naukę.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-25d166e7-8d51-4ee2-84af-e30a43b838f0
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