Powiadomienia systemowe
- Sesja wygasła!
- Sesja wygasła!
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
The article is devoted to applying the concept of early detection of pathological crisis processes to analyze the dynamics of Ukrainian agriculture development in 2003-2011. The analysis is based on time series of the export, import, production volume, export and import prices for agricultural products, volume of loans and investments. Despite the fact that the only branch that demonstrated the growth of output in 2008-2009 was agriculture, there were observed four years of crisis in agriculture during the period under consideration. The built signal panel and structural and logical model of pathological crisis processes detection in agriculture of Ukraine showed that the leading role was played by the investment balance deficit, reduction of the technological level of exports compared to imports and growth of domestic production credit bubble.
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
56--64
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 14 poz., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
- Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, 9a Lenіna Pr., 61166, Kharkіv, Ukraine
Bibliografia
- [1] V. Khaustova, P. Pronoza, Theoretical aspects of emergence and development of the crisis phenomena in economy, Problems of Economy, 4 (2011) 13-23.
- [2] P. Trunin, Monitoring financial stability in emerging economies (for example Russia), IEPP, Moscow, (2007).
- [3] A. Ulyukayev V, P. Trunin, Application signaling approach to the development of indicators-precursors of financial instability in Russia, Problems of Forecasting, 5 (2008) 100-109.
- [4] E. Davis P., D. Karim, Comparing early warning systems for banking crises, Journal of Financial Stability, 4 (2) (2008) 89–120.
- [5] A. Gaytan, Ch. Johnson, A review of the literature on early warning systems for banking crises, Central Bank of Chile, 183 (2002). http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm.
- [6] S. Percic, C.-M. Apostoaie, V. Cocri, Early warning systems for financial crises - a critical approach, CES Working Papers, 1 (2013) 78-88. http:// ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2013_V1_PER.pdf.
- [7] G. Kaminsky, S. Lizondo, C. Reinhart, Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, IMF Staff Papers, 45 (1998) 1-48.
- [8] B. Eichengreen, A. Rose, C. Wyplosz Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests, Scandinavian J. of Econ., 98 (1996) 463–484.
- [9] G. Kaminsky, M. Goldstain, C. Reinhart, Methodology for an early warning system: the signals approach, Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets. Chapter 2, DC: Institute for International Economics, Washington, (2000). http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24576.
- [10] J. Aziz, F. Caramazza, R. Salgado Currency crises: in search of common elements, IMF working paper, 00/67 (2000).
- [11] A. Tabolov, System of leading indicators for the Republic of Belarus, Banking Herald, November (2007) 30-36.
- [12] M. Kyzym, P. Pronoza, O. Polyakova, An early detection of pathological processes in the real economy //News ISEA, 1 (93) (2014) 110-120.
- [13] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.
- [14] T. Knedlik, The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The impact of preferences on an early warning system, IWH Discussion Papers, 10 (2012). http://www.iwhhalle.de/d/publik/disc/10-12.pdf.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-2491fbb8-a4b9-4a9d-b05f-6f422e3594da