Geoinformational prognostic model of mudflows hazard and mudflows risk for the territory of Ukrainian Carpathians

• Autorzy: Chepurna T. B. , Kuzmenko E. D. , Chepurnyj I. V.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/ctg-2017-0005

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article is devoted to the geological issue of the space-time regional prognostication of mudflow hazard. The methodology of space-time prediction of mudflows hazard by creating GIS predictive model has been developed. Using GIS technologies the relevant and representative complex of significant influence of spatial and temporal factors, adjusted to use in the regional prediction of mudflows hazard, were selected. Geological, geomorphological, technological, climatic, and landscape factors have been selected as spatial mudflow factors. Spatial analysis is based on detection of a regular connection of spatial factor characteristics with spatial distribution of the mudflow sites. The function of a standard complex spatial index (SCSI) of the probability of the mudflow sites distribution has been calculated. The temporal, long-term prediction of the mudflows activity was based on the hypothesis of the regular reiteration of natural processes. Heliophysical, seismic, meteorological, and hydrogeological factors have been selected as time mudflow factors. The function of a complex index of long standing mudflow activity (CIMA) has been calculated. The prognostic geoinformational model of mudflow hazard up to 2020 year, a year of the next peak of the mudflows activity, has been created. Mudflow risks have been counted and carogram of mudflow risk assessment within the limits of administrative territorial units has been built for 2020 year.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

mudflows; mudflows hazard; temporal factors; spatial factors; geoinformational model

PL

czynnik czasowy; czynnik przestrzenny; model geoinformacyjny

• Wydawca: De Gruyter
• Czasopismo: Contemporary Trends in Geoscience
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 6, iss. 1
• Strony: 57--69
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Chepurna T. B.

• Department of Geotehnohenic Safety and Geoinformatics, Institute of Geology and Geophisics, National Technical University of Oil and Gas, 15 Karpatska Street, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

autor

Kuzmenko E. D.

autor

Chepurnyj I. V.

Bibliografia

• 1. Chepurna T.B. (2011) Regional spatialtemporal prediction of mudflow hazard using GIS technology. Dissertation, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.
• 2. Chepurna T.B., Kasiyanchuk D.V., Kuzmenko E.D., Eds. (2016) Methodology of quantitative forecasting of risk of development of exogenous geological processes: mudflow risks. Geoinformatika 2, 79-85.
• 3. Iverson R.M., Reid M. E., La Husen (1997) Debris-flow mobilization from landslides. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 25 (1), 85-138.
• 4. Jakob M., Hungr O., Eds.(2005) Debris-Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena. PraxisSpringer, Berlin
• 5. Kasiyanchuk D. (2016) Calculation of ecological and geological risk of landslide hazard. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 1,18-25
• 6. Krasnook L. (2016) Informational yearbook about hazardous of exogenous geological processes intensification according to their monitoring. – Kyiv; 2016. – 89 p.
• 7. Kuzmenko E. (2011) Forecasting of exogenous processes. Part 1. Theoretical background of forecasting of exogenous geological processes. Patterns of activation of landslides. Geoinformatics 3, 61-74
• 8. Kuzmenko E.D., Chepurna T.B. (2014) Prognostication of mudflows in Ukrainian Carpathians. Geodynamika 1, 129-143
• 9. Xu J. (2008) A study on the integrated regional meteorological prognosis and warning model for geological hazards. Debris Flows: Disasters, Risk, Forecast, Protection:. Intern. conf, Pyatigorsk, -. Pyatigorsk, Institut “Sevkavgiprovodkhoz” 178-181.
• 10. Zhukov M. (2008) Mathematical statistics and processing of geological data. Kyyivkyy universtytet. - 487 p.
• 11. Zic E., Arbanas Z., Bicani N. Eds. (2015) A model of mudflow propagation downstream from the Grohovo landslide near the city of Rijeka (Croatia). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 293–31.