Detection of seismic quiescences before 1991 Uttarkashi (M W  6.8) and 1999 Chamoli M W  (6.6) earthquakes and its implications for stress change sensor

Chingtham, Prasanta; Sharma, Babita

doi:10.1007/s11600-022-00747-1

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Detection of seismic quiescences before 1991 Uttarkashi (M_W 6.8) and 1999 Chamoli M_W (6.6) earthquakes and its implications for stress change sensor

Autorzy

Chingtham Prasanta , Sharma Babita

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-022-00747-1

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The statistically point process model known as epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is employed for systematically investigating the seismic quiescence or seismic anomalies around the focal regions of large/strong earthquakes for NW Himalaya. For this propose, the model predicted the expected occurrence rates of earthquakes by estimating the model parameters from the earthquake occurrences times using maximum likelihood method, has been used. Then the exhibited relative quiescence due to decreasing occurrence rates from the modeled ones can be identified by inspecting the abnormally downward deviated plot from the extended cumulative curve of the Residual Point Process (RPP) events. Examination of such RPP events in the whole time interval exhibits significant 1.5 years and 2.0 years of relative seismic quiescence before the strong 1991 Uttarkashi (M_W 6.8) and 1999 Chamoli (M_W 6.6) earthquakes, respectively. Considering the optimally oriented planes of Uttarkashi earthquake, the Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFS) have been investigated to check the rate of seismicity around the focal region of Chamoli earthquake. It has been found that ΔCFS of Uttarkashi earthquake exhibits stress shadow in or near the source zone of Chamoli earthquake and eventually decreases seismicity rates due to seismic quiescence in the source zone. On the other hand, the detected quiescence and activation relative to the predicted seismicity rate are consistent with the obtained Coulomb stress to depict the associated anomalies being sensitive enough to detect a slight stress change in the study region. Henceforth, the increased or decreased seismic activity due to seismic activation or quiescence is found to be consistent with the patterns of the Coulomb’s stress changes calculated on the ruptured fault planes of Uttarkashi earthquake. Hence, this ETAS model based on statistical technique can thus be incorporated with other sensitive geophysical instruments for identifying seismically quiet period not only in the seismic gaps, but also in its neighborhoods along the Himalayan range for mitigating seismic hazards due to impending great earthquakes.

Słowa kluczowe

Coulomb stress changes ETAS model Uttarkashi earthquake Chamoli earthquake seismic quiescence

zmiany naprężenia Coulomba model ETAS trzęsienie ziemi w Uttarkashi trzęsienie ziemi Chamoli

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2022

Tom

Vol. 70, no 2

Strony

509--523

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 86 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Chingtham Prasanta

prasantachingtham@gmail.com

National Center for Seismology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India

autor

Sharma Babita

National Center for Seismology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).

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Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-227d3537-c121-4af7-89bf-c5bcf6abcd93

Detection of seismic quiescences before 1991 Uttarkashi (MW 6.8) and 1999 Chamoli MW (6.6) earthquakes and its implications for stress change sensor

Detection of seismic quiescences before 1991 Uttarkashi (M_W 6.8) and 1999 Chamoli M_W (6.6) earthquakes and its implications for stress change sensor