Modeling the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Baro–Akobo River basin, Ethiopia

Mengistu, Abiy Getachew; Woldesenbet, Tekalegn Ayele; Dile, Yihun Taddele; Bayabil, Haimanote Kebede

doi:10.1007/s11600-022-00956-8

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Modeling the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Baro–Akobo River basin, Ethiopia

Autorzy

Mengistu Abiy Getachew , Woldesenbet Tekalegn Ayele , Dile Yihun Taddele , Bayabil Haimanote Kebede

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-022-00956-8

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Understanding the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology is critical for developing effective water management practices. This study was conducted to investigate climate change and its impact on the hydrological processes of the Baro–Akobo River basin in Ethiopia. Five bias-corrected regional climate models and their ensemble were developed to examine future climate changes in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2100) periods under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to a baseline (1981–2010) period. The calibrated model performed well with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination of each 0.73 for daily and 0.89 and 0.9 for monthly simulation, respectively. Though all RCMs agree concerning the increasing direction of the 2030 and 2080s maximum and minimum temperature changes, there is inconsistency in the magnitude and direction of monthly projected rainfall changes. With the ensemble, the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 2.6 and 3.6 °C, respectively, and rainfall will decrease by 5% in the 2080s under RCP8.5 scenarios. The dry and wet season rainfall are expected to decrease by 19 and 3.7% under the RCP8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. Consequently, future climate change could cause a decrease in the annual surface runoff and water yield, while evapotranspiration could increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This study provides useful insights about potential climate change impacts on the hydrology of the basin, which could be useful to inform decision-makers in developing strategies such as water harvesting to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Słowa kluczowe

climate projection hydrological response SWAT Baro–Akobo basin

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2023

Tom

Vol. 71, no. 4

Strony

1915--1935

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 80 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Mengistu Abiy Getachew

abiygetachew@aau.edu.et

Department of Natural Resource Management, Mizan–Tepi University, Mizan-Aman, Ethiopia

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6366-1058

autor

Woldesenbet Tekalegn Ayele

Ethiopian Institute of Water Resource, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

autor

Dile Yihun Taddele

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

autor

Bayabil Haimanote Kebede

Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Tropical Research and Education Center, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Homestead, FL 33031, USA

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).

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Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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