Integrated assessment of change in contribution of excessive moisture to farming risks in the humid zone of Western Russia

• Autorzy: Nikolaev Mikhail V.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/111543

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper is devoted to assessing the farming risks associated with excessive moisture effects in the Humid Zone of Western Russia over the past seven decades. The proposed spatiotemporal monitoring of the areas of this zone vulnerable to over-wetting allows us to evaluate the aggregate impact of climate variability and change on the degree of risk to farming over time. Furthermore, the detailed scale of the G.T. Selyaninov Hydrothermal Index (HTC) (with high values in July) is proposed to identify the recurrence and intensity of such risks as crop lodging under ongoing climate change (by comparing two 35-yr time intervals: 1945-1979 and 1980-2014). The functional analysis of HTC helps to show an increasing contribution of extreme precipitation totals to lodging intensity in comparison with cumulative air temperature contribution in recent decades, even in cases when air temperature sums have a tendency to increase. Moreover, the regression relationships between high precipitation totals and high HTC values are revealed more distinctly in the time interval of 1980-2014 due to a decrease in the residual variance. The comparative analysis of empirical distributions of total seasonal precipitation deviations from trends within time intervals 1946-1980 and 1981-2015 also confirmed the increasing recurrence of marginal positive anomalies in summer and autumn precipitation totals in the time interval of 1981- 2015. In conclusion, the effects of excess moisture on the sustainability of regional crop production are assessed, and adaptation strategies are discussed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

humid zone; climate change; excessive moisture effects; farming risks

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 8, Iss. 1
• Strony: 46--53
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 27 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Nikolaev Mikhail V.

• Agrophysical Research Institute, Grazhdanksiy prospekt 14, 195220 St. Petersburg, Russia

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