Sequence of events and probability of sinking of German battleship Bismarck (short communication)

• Autorzy: Opyrchal Leszek , Bąk Aleksandra
• Konferencja: 16th Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars - SSARS 2022, 4-11 September 2022, Ciechocinek, Poland
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

“Rheinübung” was one of the most important war operations of the Second World War. It was carried out in May 1941. The German battleships Bismarck and Prinz Eugen were to sail to the Atlantic Ocean and attack convoys with supplies from the United States to Great Britain in May 1941. The breaking of supplies would force Britain to surrender. The mission was unsuccessful. The largest battleship of the world, Bismarck, was sunk. This short communication discusses the sequence of events that led to the sinking of the ship. The calculations show that the probability of sinking is 0.00137. This is one hundred times less than the probability of a fatal accident in deep-sea fishing, which is 0.104.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

battleship Bismarck; event tree; World War II

• Wydawca: Gdynia Maritime University ; Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2022
• Strony: 227--230
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Opyrchal Leszek

• Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7585-843X

autor

Bąk Aleksandra

• Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5340-7790

Bibliografia

• Kent, S. 1964. Words of estimative probability, Central Intelligence Agency, 3-9-27, 49-65. https://dp.la/item/083a07cc8f855b93fd883db708290a09 accessed 15.04.2022.
• Piotrowski, J. 1976. Podstawy metrologii. PWN, Warszawa.
• Safety and Health. 1977. Dangerous jobs, https://www.b1s.gov/iif/oshwc/cfar0020.pdf accessed 15.04.2022.
• Skiwot, M. & Prusinowska, E.T. 1999. Operacja Rheiniibung. Polowanie na Bismarcka (Operation “Rheinübung”. The Hunt for Bismarck). AJ-Press, Gdansk.
• Zieliński, A. (music) & Młynarski, W. (lyrics). 1970 on the long play: Od wschodu do zachodu słońca (From sunrise to sunset).

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).