Evaluating the variability in long-term rainfall over India with advanced statistical techniques

Ahmed, Ishita Afreen; Salam, Roquia; Naikoo, Mohd Waseem; Rahman, Atiqur; Praveen, Bushra; Hoai, Pham Ngoc; Pham, Quoc Bao; Anh, Duong Tran; Tri, Doan Quang; Elkhrachy, Ismail

doi:10.1007/s11600-022-00735-5

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Evaluating the variability in long-term rainfall over India with advanced statistical techniques

Autorzy

Ahmed Ishita Afreen , Salam Roquia , Naikoo Mohd Waseem , Rahman Atiqur , Praveen Bushra , Hoai Pham Ngoc , Pham Quoc Bao , Anh Duong Tran , Tri Doan Quang , Elkhrachy Ismail

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-022-00735-5

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Climate change has been a significant subject in recent years all around the world. Statistical analysis of climatic parameters such as rainfall can investigate the actual status of the atmosphere. As a result, this study aimed to look at the pattern of mean annual rainfall in India from 1901 to 2016, considering 34 meteorological subdivisions. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, Bootstrapped MK (BMK) test, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) were used to find trends in yearly rainfall time-series results. Rainfall forecasting was evaluated using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Because the research comprised 34 meteorological subdivisions, it may be challenging to convey the general climatic conditions of India in a nutshell. The MK, MMK, and BMK tests showed a significant (p < 0.01 to p < 0.1) negative trend in 9, 8, and 9 sub-divisions, respectively. According to the ITA, a negative trend was found in 17 sub-divisions, with 9 sub-divisions showing a significance level of 0.01 to 0.1. The ITA outperformed the other three trend test techniques. The results of DFA showed that 20 sub-divisions would decrease in future rainfall, suggesting that there was a link between past and future rainfall trends. Results show that highly negative or decreasing rainfall trends have been found in broad regions of India, which could be related to climate change, according to the results. ITA and DFA techniques to discover patterns in 34 sub-divisions across India have yet to be implemented. In developing management plans for sustainable water resource management in the face of climate change, this research is a valuable resource for climate scientists, water resource scientists, and government officials.

Słowa kluczowe

climate change rainfall forecasting India time-series rainfall trend detection detrended fluctuation analysis

zmiana klimatu prognozowanie opadów Indie

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2022

Tom

Vol. 70, no 2

Strony

801--818

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 62 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Ahmed Ishita Afreen

Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India

autor

Salam Roquia

Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh

autor

Naikoo Mohd Waseem

Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India

autor

Rahman Atiqur

Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India

autor

Praveen Bushra

School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol, Indore 453552, India

autor

Hoai Pham Ngoc

Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong province, Vietnam

autor

Pham Quoc Bao

Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong province, Vietnam

autor

Anh Duong Tran

ta.duong@hutech.edu.vn

HUTECH University, 475A, Dien Bien Phu, Ward 25, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

autor

Tri Doan Quang

Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration, Dong Da, Vietnam

autor

Elkhrachy Ismail

Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Najran University, King Abdulaziz Road, P.O Box 1988, Najran, Saudi Arabia
Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Al-Azhar University, Nasr City, Cairo, 11371, Egypt

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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