Trends and prediction of extreme precipitation indices in three cities of Burkina Faso using non-parametric statistics and the Holt-Winters smoothing method

• Autorzy: Yaméogo Joseph

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/209088

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Climate extremes have become increasingly important in recent years, leading to renewed scientific interest. However, few studies have focused on precipitation extremes in cities in Burkina Faso, a Sahelian country in West Africa. The aim of this study is to analyze trends and to project future extreme precipitation indices in three cities in Burkina Faso. To this end, precipitation data, recorded daily, were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Burkina Faso (NMABF) over the period 1991-2020. The stations selected were Boromo for the small town of Boromo, Saria for the medium-sized town of Koudougou, and BoboDioulasso for the town of Bobo-Dioulasso. The precipitation data were used to calculate the extreme precipitation indices described by ETCCDMI (Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices) using Rclimdex. Descriptive statistics, the Mann-Kendall test, and trends from innovative models were used to analyze the extreme precipitation indices; the Holt-Winters additive model was used to analyze future projections. The study showed considerable variability and a monotonic increasing trend in extreme precipitation indices over the period 1991-2020. However, for the city of Koudougou, the trend was a non-monotonic increase. The forecast based on the Holt-Winters additive model shows considerable variability in the extreme precipitation indices, with an upward trend over the period 2020-2030. On the other hand, in the city of Koudougou, indices of precipitation duration will decrease, indicating that the city will be affected most by the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

innovative graphical trend; additive Holt-Winters model; extreme precipitation indices; Burkina Faso

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 13, Iss. 1
• Strony: 74--103
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 77 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Yaméogo Joseph

• Ziniaré University Center/Joseph Ki-Zerbo University, Burkina Faso

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5879-2723

Bibliografia

• Abiodun B.J, Adegoke J., Abatan A.A., Ibe C.A., Egbebiyi T.S., Engelbrecht F., Pinto I., 2017, Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities, Climatic Change, 143, 399-413, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2001-5.
• Aditya F., Gusmayanti E., Sudrajat J., 2021, Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 893 (1), DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012006.
• Almazroui M., Şen Z., Mohorji A.M., Islam M.N., 2019, Impacts of climate change on water engineering structures in arid regions: case studies in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Earth Systems and Environment, 3, 43-57, DOI: 10.1007/s41748-018-0082-6.
• Atoyebi S.B., Olayiwola M.F., Oladapo J.O., Oladapo D.I., 2023, Forecasting Currency in Circulation in Nigeria Using HoltWinters Exponential Smoothing Method, South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 20 (1), 25-41, DOI: 10.9734/sajsse/2023/v20i1689.
• Barry A.A., Caesar J., Klein Tank A.M.G., Aguilar E., McSweeney C., Cyrille A.M., Nikiema M.P., Narcisse K.B., Sima F., Stafford G., Touray L.M., Ayilari-Naa J.A., Mendes C.L., Tounkara M., Gar-Glahn E.V.S., Coulibaly M.S., Dieh M.F., Mouhaimouni M., Oyegade J.A., Sambou E., Laogbessi E.T., 2018, West Africa climate extremes and climate change indices, International Journal of Climatology, 38 (S1), e921-e938, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5420.
• Bassirou H., Masamaéya D.T.G., Sanda I.S., Cheo A.E., Sougue M., Pouye I., 2023, Extreme rainfall and streamflow in Niamey City: Trends and relationship between higher streamflow and rainfall, International Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 9 (1), 21-32, DOI: 10.37628/jwre.v9i1.802.
• Béwentaoré S., Barro D., 2022, Space-time trend detection and dependence modeling in extreme event approaches by functional peaks-over-thresholds: Application to precipitation in Burkina Faso, International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 1, DOI: 10.1155/2022/2608270.
• Bhagat S.K., Ramaswamy K., 2023, Precipitation variations in the central Vietnam to forecast using Holt-Winters Seasonal Additive Forecasting method for 1990 to 2019 trend, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1216 (1), DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/1216/1/012019.
• Biasutti M., 2013, Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (4), 1613-1623, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50206.
• Bigi V., Pezzoli A., Rosso M., 2018, Past and future precipitation trend analysis for the City of Niamey (Niger): An overview, Climate, 6 (3), DOI: 10.3390/cli6030073.
• Chowdari K.K., Deb Barma S., Bhat N., Girisha R., Gouda K.C., Mahesha A., 2023, Trends of seasonal and annual rainfall of semi-arid districts of Karnataka, India: application of innovative trend analysis approach, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 152 (1), 241-264, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-023-04400-9.
• Dabanli İ., Şen Z., Yeleğen M.O., Şişman E., Selek B., Güçlü Y.S., 2016, Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method, Water Resources Management, 30 (14), 5193-5203, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4.
• Diémé L.P.M., Bouvier C., Bodian A., Sidibé A., 2025, Detection of flooding by overflows of the drainage network: Application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25, 1095-1112, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere2023-2458.
• Doan Q.-V., Kobayashi S., Kusaka H., Chen F., He C., Niyogi D., 2023, Tracking urban footprint on extreme precipitation in an African megacity, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 62 (2), 209-226, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0048.1.
• Ezeh A., Kissling F., Singer P., 2020, Why sub-Saharan Africa might exceed its projected population size by 2100, The Lancet, 396 (10258), 1131-1133, DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31522-1.
• Gbode I.E., Adeyeri O.E., Menang KP., Intsiful J.D., Ajayi V.O., Omotosho J.A., Akinsanola A.A., 2019, Observed changes in climate extremes in Nigeria, Meteorological Applications, 26 (4), 642-654, DOI: 10.1002/met.1791.
• Gelper S., Fried R., Croux C., 2010, Robust forecasting with exponential and Holt-Winters smoothing, Journal of forecasting, 29 (3), 285-300, DOI: 10.1002/for.1125.
• Gimeno L., Sorí R., Vazquez M., Stojanovic M., Algarra I., Eiras-Barca J., Gimeno-Sotelo L., Nieto R., 2022, Extreme precipitation events, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 9 (6), DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1611.
• Giugni M., Simonis I., Bucchignani E., Capuano P., De Paola F., Engelbrecht F., Mercogliano P., Topa M.E., 2015, The impacts of climate change on African cities, [in:] Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa: A Multidisciplinary Approach, Springer, 37-75. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03982-4_2.
• Gowri L., Manjula K.R., Sasireka K., Deepa D., 2022, Assessment of statistical models for rainfall forecasting using machine learning technique, Journal of Soft Computing in Civil Engineering, 6(2), 51-67, DOI: 10.22115/SCCE.2022.304260.1363.
• Graham A., Mishra E.P., 2017, Time series analysis model to forecast rainfall for Allahabad region, Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 6 (5), 1418-1421.
• Gundalia M.J., Dholakia M.B., 2012, Prediction of maximum/minimum temperatures using Holt Winters method with Excel spreadsheet for Junagadh region, International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology, 1 (6), DOI: 10.17577/IJERTV1IS6301.
• Güçlü Y.S., 2020, Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA, Journal of Hydrology, 584, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124674.
• Habiyakare F., Jiang T., Yahaya I., Ndabagenga D., Kagabo J., Su B., 2024, Spatial variation and trend of extreme precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and its projected changes at the end of 21st century, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 12 (3), 192-221, DOI: 10.4236/gep.2024.123012.
• Herslund L., Lund D.H., Jørgensen G., Mguni P., Kombe W.J., Yeshitela K., 2015, Towards climate change resilient cities in Africa-Initiating adaptation in Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa, [in] Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa: A Multidisciplinary Approach, Springer, 319-348, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03982-4_10.
• Ihaka R., 2005, Time Series Analysis, Lecture Notes for 475726, Statistics Department, University of Auckland.
• INSD, 2011, Le Burkina en chiffres, 8, Institut National de la Statistique et de la Démographie.
• IPCC, 2021, Summary for Policymakers, [in:]Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC.
• IPCC, 2023, Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, DOI: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.
• Irwan I., Abdy M., Karwingsi E., Ahmar A.S., 2023, Rainfall forecasting in Makassar City using triple exponential smoothing method, ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 3 (1), 52-58, DOI: 10.35877/soshum1707.
• Karl T.R., Nicholls N., Anver G., 1999, CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO Workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes workshop summary, [in:] Weather and Climate Extremes: Changes, Variations and a Perspective from the Insurance Industry, T.R. Karl, N. Nicholls. Ghazi A. (eds.), Springer, Dordrecht, 3-7, DOI: 10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_2.
• Kessabi R., Hanchane M., Ait Brahim Y., El Khazzan B., Addou R., Belmahi M., 2024, Characterization of annual and seasonal rainfall trend using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and classical methods: the case of Wadi Sebou basin (WSB) Morocco, Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration, 10, 555-573, DOI: 10.1007/s41207-024-00507-1.
• Koala S., Nakoulma G., Dipama J.-M., 2023, Évolution des précipitations et de la température à l’Horizon 2050 avec les modèles climatiques CMIP5 dans le bassin versant du Nakambé (Burkina Faso), International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies, 37 (2), 110-124, DOI: 10.52155/ijpsat.v37.2.5133.
• Koehler A.B., Snyder R.D., Ord J.K., 2001, Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method, International Journal of Forecasting, 17 (2), 269-286, DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00081-4.
• Konate D., Didi S.R., Dje K.B., Diedhiou A., Kouassi K.L., Kamagate B., Paturel J.-E., Coulibaly H.S.J.-P., Kouadio C.A.K., Coulibaly T.J.H., 2023, Observed changes in rainfall and characteristics of extreme events in Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), Hydrology, 10(5), 104, DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10050104.
• Kougbeagbede H., 2024, Detection of annual rainfall trends using innovative trend analysis method in Benin, International Journal of Global Warming, 32 (1), 54-64, DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.135361.
• Lawton R., 1998, How should additive Holt-Winters estimates be corrected?, International Journal of Forecasting, 14 (3), 393-403, DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00040-5.
• Lourdes F.M., Kim Y.K., Choi M., Kim J.-C., Do X.K., Nguyen T.H., Jung K., 2021, Detailed trend analysis of extreme climate indices in the Upper Geum River Basin, Water, 13 (22), DOI: 10.3390/w13223171.
• Mallick J., Talukdar S., Alsubih M., Salam R., Ahmed M., Kahla N.B., Shamimuzzaman M., 2021, Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 143, 823-841, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03448-1.
• Mandal T., Sarkar A., Das J., Rahman A.T.M.S., Chouhan P., 2021, Comparison of classical Mann-Kendal test and graphical innovative trend analysis for analyzing rainfall changes in India, [in:] India: Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation in Developing Countries, Cham: Springer International Publishing, 155-183, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-67865-4_7.
• Marak J.D.K., Sarma A.K., Bhattacharjya R.K., 2020, Innovative trend analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall variations in Umiam and Umtru watersheds in Meghalaya, India, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142, 1397-1412, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03383-1.
• Mohorji A.M., Şen Z., Almazroui M., 2017, Trend analyses revision and global monthly temperature innovative multi-duration analysis, Earth Systems and Environment, 1, DOI: 10.1007/s41748-017-0014-x.
• Muthiah M., Sivarajan S., Madasamy N., Natarajan A., Ayyavoo R., 2024, Analyzing Rainfall trends using statistical methods across Vaippar Basin, Tamil Nadu, India: A comprehensive study, Sustainability, 16 (5), DOI: 10.3390/su16051957.
• Natayu A., Clarke Q.J.H., Fikri M., 2022, Benchmark of Holt-Winters and SARIMA methods in predicting Jakarta climate, preprints.
• Nurhamidah N., Nusyirwan N., Faisol A., 2020, Forecasting seasonal time series data using the holt-winters exponential smoothing method of additive models, Jurnal Matematika Integratif, 16 (2), 151-157, DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16.n2.29293.151-157.
• OECD, 2022, Africa’s Urbanisation Dynamics 2022. The Economic Power of Africa’s Cities, West African Studies, OECD/UN ECA/AfDB, OECD Publishing, Paris, DOI: 10.1787/3834ed5b-en.
• Oufrigh O., Elouissi A., Benzater B., 2023, Trend assessment by the Mann-Kendall test and the Innovative Trend Analysis method (North-West Algeria), GeoScience Engineering, 69 (2), 186-233, DOI: 10.35180/gse-2023-0099.
• Pala Z., Şevgin F., 2024, Statistical modeling for long-term meteorological forecasting: a case study in Van Lake Basin, Natural Hazards, 120, 14101-14116, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06747-2.
• Pardoux C., Goldfarb B., 2013, Prévision à court terme: méthodes de lissage exponentiel, Université de Paris Douphien, 52 pp.
• Pastagia J., Mehta D., 2022, Application of innovative trend analysis on rainfall time series over Rajsamand district of Rajasthan state, Water Supply, 22 (9), 7189-7196, DOI: 10.2166/ws.2022.276.
• Patel S., Mehta D., 2023, Statistical analysis of climate change over Hanumangarh district, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14 (6), 2029-2041, DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.227.
• Pertiwi D.D., 2020, Applied exponential smoothing Holt-Winters method for rainfall forecast in Mataram City, Journal of Intelligent Computing and Health Informatics, 1 (2), 46-49, DOI: 10.26714/jichi.v1i2.6330.
• Pinel S., 2020, Ajustement de courbes et séries chronologiques, IUT STID, UE21 M2102, 37 pp.
• Pleños M., 2022, Time series forecasting using holt-winters exponential smoothing: Application to abaca fiber data, Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, 22 (2), 17-29, DOI: 10.22630/PRS.2022.22.2.6.
• Pongdatu G.A.N., Putra Y.H., 2018, Seasonal time series forecasting using SARIMA and Holt Winter’s exponential smoothing, IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 407 (1), DOI: 10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012153.
• Puah Y.J., Huang Y.F., Chua K.C., Lee T.S., 2016, River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt-Winters method, Journal of Earth System Science, 125 (2), 269-283, DOI: 10.1007/s12040-016-0661-6.
• Rouamba S., Yaméogo J., Sanou K., Zongo R., Yanogo I.P., 2023, Trends and variability of extreme climate indices in the Boucle du Mouhoun (Burkina Faso), GEOREVIEW: Scientific Annals of Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava: Geography Series, 33 (1), 70-84, DOI: 10.4316/GEOREVIEW.2023.01.07.
• Sanusi W., Abdy M., 2021, Innovative trend analysis of annual maximum precipitation in Gowa regency, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1899 (1), DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1899/1/012092.
• Şen Z., 2017, Innovative trend significance test and applications, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127, 939-947, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x.
• Şen Z., Şişman E., Dabanli I., 2019, Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications, Journal of Hydrology, 575, 202-210, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.028.
• Sezen C., Partal T., 2020, Wavelet combined innovative trend analysis for precipitation data in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65 (11), 1909-1927, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1784422.
• Shah S.A., Kiran M., 2021, Mann-Kendall test: trend analysis of temperature, rainfall and discharge of Ghotki feeder canal in district Ghotki, Sindh, Pakistan, Environment & Ecosystem Science, 5 (2), 137-142, DOI: 10.26480/ees.02.2021.137.142.
• Sirven P., 1987, Démographie et villes au Burkina Faso, Les Cahiers d’Outre-Mer, 40 (159), 265-283, available online at https://www.persee.fr/doc/caoum_03735834_1987_num_40_159_3227 (data access 07.08.2025).
• Sougué M., Merz B., Sogbedji J.M., Zougmoré F., 2023, Extreme rainfall in southern Burkina Faso, West Africa: trends and links to Atlantic Sea surface temperature, Atmosphere, 14 (2), DOI: 10.3390/atmos14020284.
• Sylla M.B., Giorgi F., Pal J.S., Gibba P., Kebe I., Nikiema M., 2015, Projected changes in the annual cycle of high-intensity precipitation events over West Africa for the late twenty-first century, Journal of Climate, 28 (16), 6475-6488, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00854.1.
• Tazen F., Diarra A., Kabore R.F., Ibrahim B., Bologo/Traoré M., Traoré K., Karambiri H., 2019, Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12507.
• Thomasson S.A., 2017, Improving forecast performance of LPG demand, Master's Thesis, University of Twente, 109 pp.
• Trepekli K., Friborg T., Allotey A.N., Møller-Jensen L., 2019, Influence of climate change on the future precipitation pattern in the region of Ghana: Climate change resilience in urban mobility, University of Copenhagen, 16 pp.
• Wiguna I.K.A.G., Utami N.L.P.A.C., Parwita W.G.S., Udayana I.P.A.E.D., Sudipa I.G.I., 2023, Rainfall forecasting using the HoltWinters exponential smoothing method, Jurnal Info Sains: Informatika dan Sains, 13 (01), 15-23.
• Yaméogo J., 2024, Changes in the seasonal cycles of extreme temperatures in the Sudano-Sahelian domain in West Africa: a case study from Burkina Faso, Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 12 (2), DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/194451.
• Yaméogo J., 2025, Annual rainfall trends in the Burkina Faso Sahel: a comparative analysis between Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method (ITM), Discover Applied Sciences, 7, DOI: 10.1007/s42452-025-06675-1.
• Yaméogo J., Rouamba S., 2023a, Extreme temperature in Burkina Faso: decadal spatio-temporal changes between 1960 and 2019, European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, 1 (6), 441-450, DOI: 10.59324/ejtas.2023.1(6).43.
• Yaméogo J., Rouamba S., 2023b, Climatic disasters in Burkina Faso from 1960 to 2020: Occurrence, spatiotemporal dynamics and socio-environmental consequences, African Journal on Land Policy & Geospatial Sciences, 6 (5), 1022-1043.
• Yaméogo J., Sawadogo A., 2024, Consequences of precipitation variability and socio-economic activity on surface water in the Vranso water basin (Burkina Faso), Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 104 (1), 255-266, DOI: 10.2298/GSGD2401255Y.
• Yaméogo J., Yanogo I.P., Ndoutorlengar M., 2022, Approvisionnement en eau potable en milieu urbain dans les quartiers informels de la ville de Boromo (Burkina Faso): entre accommodements locaux, enjeux socioéconomiques et risques sanitaires, Annales de Moundou. Série A: Annales de la Faculté des Lettres, Arts et Sciences Humaines, 9 (1), 57-91.
• Yanogo I.P., Yaméogo J., 2023, Recent rainfall trends between 1990 and 2020: contrasting characteristics between two climate zones in Burkina Faso (West Africa), Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 103 (1), 87-106, DOI: 10.2298/GSGD2301087Y.
• Zhang X., Yang F., 2004, RClimDex (1.0) User Manual, Climate Research, Branch Environment, Canada, 23.