Analysis of heatwaves in Uzbekistan: characteristics, implications, and future climate projections

• Autorzy: Yakhshiboev Bobur , Feng Zhaozhong

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/214066

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Heatwaves (HWs) have emerged as some of the most serious climate-induced hazards worldwide. This research analyzes the occurrence, characteristics, and consequences of HWs across Uzbekistan between 1980 and 2020. The study primarily aims to identify heatwave thresholds, examine related meteorological patterns, and evaluate their influence on human health and agricultural systems. Using reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), heatwave thresholds were established based on temperature anomalies exceeding 5°C above the long-term July mean. Summer heat in Uzbekistan peaks in July; Bukhara and Khorezm are identified as the regions most affected by extreme temperatures. During the 40-year period, five HWs were documented in Bukhara and seven in Khorezm. Synoptic analysis revealed that persistent cyclonic activity dominated during these episodes, leading to stagnant and exceptionally warm atmospheric conditions. Mortality statistics from the United Nations indicate that although the overall death rate has declined since the late 1970s, the health risks associated with prolonged heat events remain substantial. Agricultural sensitivity was also evident, with increasing heat contributing to reduced crop yields and water stress, thus threatening food security. Furthermore, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations under SSP1–2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest that continued warming will likely heighten both the frequency and duration of HWs, posing greater risks to human well-being and agricultural resilience. These results underscore the need for enhanced early warning systems, improved weather forecasting, and climate-resilient policies in Uzbekistan. Strengthening community awareness and integrating scientific insights into policy frameworks are vital for minimizing the escalating impacts of HWs in a warming environment.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

heatwaves; Uzbekistan; human health; agriculture; climate change

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 13, Iss. 2
• Strony: 35--52
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 33 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Yakhshiboev Bobur

• Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China

autor

Feng Zhaozhong

• Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China

Bibliografia

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