Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours

• Autorzy: Dąbrowska Ewa

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26408/srsp-2021-05

• Konferencja: 15th Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars - SSARS 2021, 5-12 September 2021, Ciechocinek, Poland
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The general model of oil spill movement forecasting based on a probabilistic approach is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. The method of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is recommended. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation procedure for predicting the oil spill domain movement is proposed. The procedure is practically applied for Gdynia and Karlskrona ports' water areas.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

harbour; accident; oil spill; stochastic modelling; Monte Carlo prediction

• Wydawca: Gdynia Maritime University ; Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Summer Safety and Reliability Seminar 2021
• Strony: 59--75
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 18 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Dąbrowska Ewa

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6704-9541

Bibliografia

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• Bogalecka, M. & Kołowrocki, K. 2015b. The process of sea environment threats generated by hazardous chemicals release. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars 6(1), 67-74.
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• Dąbrowska, E. & Kołowrocki, K. 2019.Modelling, identification and prediction of oil spill domains at port and sea water areas, Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars10(1), 43-58.
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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).