Influence of computational grid resolution on the quality of forecasts of dangerous convection phenomena: a case study of August 11, 2017

• Autorzy: Mazur Andrzej , Duniec Grzegorz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/159068

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

On August 11, 2017, a violent convection phenomenon took place in northwestern Poland, i.e., a storm combined with intense rainfall and hurricane winds. This paper presents an attempt to analyze this case by using the results of a numerical weather model, at grid spacings of 7 km, 2.8 km, and 0.7 km. Various convective indicators were analyzed to assess the nature of the event. The key question the authors try to answer is: „To what extent, if any, did a tenfold increase in resolution improve the quality of the numerical forecasts?” This question, however, has not been conclusively resolved. The most likely cause of this event was a supercell rapidly moving from south to northeast. This supercell's path has been mapped (qualitatively at least) by the Supercell Detection Index at all resolutions used. As the resolution increased, the forecasted maximum gusts also increased from 25 m/s in the domain with a resolution of 7 km to 35 m/s at a resolution of 2.8 km and up to about 50 m/s at the highest resolution of 0.7 km. A key conclusion is that the results of the model at a resolution of 2.8 km are much closer to reality than at 7 km. This effect did not pertain to differences between the 2.8 km and 0.7 km models. The latter increase in resolution did not significantly improve the quality of the forecast.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

meteorological model; supercell; high-resolution approach; convection-permitting scale

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 10, Iss. 2
• Strony: 106--114
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 21 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Mazur Andrzej

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute

autor

Duniec Grzegorz

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).