Response to Marks (2025): Contemporary global warming versus climate change in the Holocene

• Autorzy: Summerhayes Colin , Head Martin J. , Gałuszka Agnieszka , Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł Barbara , Waters Colin N. , Robin Libby , Sörlin Sverker , Cearreta Alejandro , Wallenhorst Nathanaël , Zalasiewicz Jan
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The Holocene geological record provides the most immediate context for understanding and interpreting the climate of the present and future Earth System. Marks (2025) suggests a Holocene climate steered largely by cyclical solar forcing, and that modern warming, driven by increased solar activity, will be replaced within the coming 3 kyr by cooling almost everywhere. This view contrasts with palaeoclimate data, instrumental records, an understanding of climate drivers and feedbacks, and global and regional climate modelling studies, which show that Holocene climate was largely controlled by slow Milankovitch-related changes. Superimposed on these were minor solar fluctuations with a higher frequency. Solar activity was at the same ‘high’ level in the 1780s, 1860s and 1980s, making it a highly unlikely cause of recent warming. Modern global warming has two main drivers: 1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which rose steeply after 1950; and 2) both water vapour, which increases as the ocean warms, and clouds. Atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any other time since the Middle Miocene, making global temperatures warmer than any multi-century interval since the Last Interglacial. Earth ’s climate has left its equable Holocene state. The long residence time of CO₂ ensures persistent warming for tens of millennia.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Holocene; carbon dioxide; global temperature; climate models; proxy-based reconstructions

• Wydawca: Państwowy Instytut Geologiczny - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Geologiczny
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: Vol. 73, nr 5
• Strony: 469--476
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 100 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Summerhayes Colin

• Scott Polar Research Institute, Lensfield Road, Cambridge CB2 1ER, UK

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4638-4260

autor

Head Martin J.

• Department of Earth Sciences, Brock University, 1812 Sir Isaac Brock Way, St. Catharines, Ontario L2S 3A1, Canada

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3026-5483

autor

Gałuszka Agnieszka

• Institute of Chemistry, Jan Kochanowski University, 7 Uniwersytecka St, 25-406 Kielce, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2497-2627

autor

Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł Barbara

• Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation, Biogeochemistry Research Unit, Krygowskiego 10, Poznań 61-680, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0369-985X

autor

Waters Colin N.

• School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6113-8730

autor

Robin Libby

• Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5202-9185

autor

Sörlin Sverker

• Division of History of Science, Technology and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2864-2315

autor

Cearreta Alejandro

• Departamento de Geologia, Facultad de Ciencia y Tecnología, Universidad del Pais Vasco UPV/EHU, Apartado 644, 48080 Bilbao, Spain

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0100-1454

autor

Wallenhorst Nathanaël

• Catholic University of the West, Angers, France

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1043-1288

autor

Zalasiewicz Jan

• School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3220-4855

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).