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Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualties, environmental pollution or loss of property. In particular, tankers pose a high environmental risk as they carry very large amounts of oil or more modest amounts of possibly highly toxic chemicals. In this paper, a simplified risk assessment meth-odology for spills from tankers is proposed for the Gulf of Finland, for tankers involved in a ship-ship collision. The method is placed in a wider risk assessment methodology, inspired by the Formal Safety Assess-ment (FSA) and determines the risk as a combination of probability of occurrence and severity of the consequences. The collision probability model is based on a time-domain micro simulation of maritime traf-fic, for which the input is obtained through a detailed analysis of data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). In addition, an accident causation model, coupled to the output of the traffic simulation model is proposed to evaluate the risk reduction effect of the risk control options. Further development of the model is needed, but the modular nature of the model allows for continuous improvement of the modules and the ex-tension of the model to include more hazards or consequences, such that the effect of risk control options can be studied and recommendations made. This paper shows some preliminary results of some risk analysis blocks for tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland.
Słowa kluczowe
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Tom
Strony
381--387
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 19 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
autor
- Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Espoo, Finland
autor
- Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Espoo, Finland
autor
- Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Espoo, Finland
autor
autor
Bibliografia
- [1] Brown, A.J., 2002. Collision scenarios and probabilistic collision damage. Marine Structures, 15(4-5):335-364.
- [2] Ehlers, S. 2010. Material relation to assess the crashworthiness of ship structures. Doctoral Dissertation, Aalto University, School of Science and Technology.
- [3] Goerlandt, F., Kujala, P. 2011. Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety doi:10.1016/j.ress.2010.09.003.
- [4] Goerlandt, F., Ståhlberg, K., Kujala, P. 2011. Comparative study of input models for collision risk evaluation. Ocean Engineering – manuscript under review.
- [5] Gucma L., Przywarty M.: The Model of Oil Spills Due to Ships Collisions in Southern Baltic Area. TransNav - International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 415-419, 2000
- [6] Hänninen M., Kujala P.: The Effects of Causation Probability on the Ship Collision Statistics in the Gulf of Finland. TransNav - International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 79-84, 201
- [7] Hänninen, M. & Kujala, P. 2011. Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model. In prep.
- [8] HELCOM. 2010. Maritime Activities in the Baltic Sea – An integrated thematic assessment on maritime activities and response to pollution at sea in the Baltic Sea Region. Balt. Sea Environ. Proc. No. 123.
- [9] Kaplan, S., 1997. The Words of Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis, 17(4), 407-417.
- [10] Klanac, A., Duletic, T., Erceg, S., Ehlers, S., Goerlandt, F., Frank, D. 2010. Environmental risk of collision for en-closed seas: Gulf of Finland, Adriatic and implications for tanker design. 5th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships, Espoo.
- [11] Kontovas, C., Psarafitis, H. 2005. Formal Safety Assessment – Critical review and future role. Msc. Thesis, National University of Athens.
- [12] Kujala, P., Hänninen, M., Arola, T., Ylitalo, J. 2009. Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94(8):1349-1357.
- [13] Lützen, M., 2001. Ship collision damage. PhD thesis, Tech-nical University of Denmark.
- [14] Montewka, J., Ståhlberg, K., Seppala, T., Kujala, P. 2010. Elements of risk analysis for collision of oil tankers. In G. Soares (Ed.), ESREL 2010, London. Taylor and Francis.
- [15] National Research Council (NRC), 2001. Environmental Performance of Tanker Designs in Collision and Grounding. Special Report 259, The National Academies Press.
- [16] Smailys, V., Cesnauskis, M. 2006. Estimation of expected car-go outflow from tanker involved in casualty. Transport Vilnius 21(4):293-300.
- [17] Tabri, K. 2010. Dynamics of ship collisions. Doctoral Dissertation, Aalto University, School of Science and Technology.
- [18] van de Wiel, G., van Dorp, J.R. 2009. An oil outflow model for tanker collisions and groundings. Annals of Operations Re-search: doi: 10.1007/s10479-009-0674-5.
- [19] Zhang, S., 1999. The mechanics of ship collisions. PhD thesis, Technical University of Denmark.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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