The commodity price of coffee as an indicator of shocks in the HICP index: implications for strategic management in the food industry

• Autorzy: Janek Svatopluk , Rousek Pavel , Matasová Tereza

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17512/pjms.2024.30.1.08

Warianty tytułu

PL

Cena kawy jako wskaźnik nagłych zmienności w indeksie HICP: implikacje dla zarządzania strategicznego w przemyśle spożywczym

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In many cases, transfers of commodity shocks to price levels have been described. This transfer is typical for energy commodities such as oil, natural gas, and electricity. The common denominator of energy commodities is that the sentiment stemming from shocks manifests itself in the economy on an aggregate scale - primarily in inflationary tendencies. In connection with numerous studies, this contribution focuses on the transmission of sentiment from coffee traded on ICE Futures in Chicago to the price level (based on HICP indices) of retail coffee in Eurozone countries; selectively, Belgium and Malta, where it was defined as a normal good. Using bivariate statistical tools based on Granger and Johansen tests, neither a mediating nor a moderating effect of the nominal EUR/CZK exchange rate on the euro area HICP was found. Only a long-run equilibrium relationship between Eurozone and Belgian HICPs and ICE Futures was found. The results have some novelty in the context of linking the relationship between the primary commodity price and the inflation-adjusted final product, which is useful for management. In this context, it can be argued that commodity sentiment criteria should be viewed on an ad hoc basis, which is also true for possible future perspectives.

PL

W wielu przypadkach opisano przenoszenie szoków towarowych na poziomy cen. Transfer ten jest typowy dla towarów energetycznych, takich jak ropa naftowa, gaz ziemny i energia elektryczna. Wspólnym mianownikiem towarów energetycznych jest to, że nastroje wynikające z szoków przejawiają się w gospodarce w skali zagregowanej - przede wszystkim w tendencjach inflacyjnych. W związku z licznymi badaniami, niniejszy wkład koncentruje się na przenoszeniu nastrojów z kawy będącej przedmiotem obrotu na ICE Futures w Chicago na poziom cen (w oparciu o indeksy HICP) kawy detalicznej w krajach strefy euro; wybiórczo w Belgii i na Malcie, gdzie została ona zdefiniowana jako dobro normalne. Stosując dwuwartościowe narzędzia statystyczne oparte na testach Grangera i Johansena, nie stwierdzono ani pośredniczącego, ani moderującego wpływu nominalnego kursu wymiany EUR/CZK na HICP w strefie euro. Stwierdzono jedynie długookresową relację równowagi między zharmonizowanymi wskaźnikami cen konsumpcyjnych w strefie euro i Belgii a kontraktami ICE Futures. Wyniki mają pewne nowatorskie znaczenie w kontekście powiązania relacji między ceną towaru podstawowego a skorygowanym o inflację produktem końcowym, co jest przydatne w zarządzaniu. W tym kontekście można argumentować, że kryteria nastrojów towarowych powinny być postrzegane doraźnie, co dotyczy również możliwych perspektyw na przyszłość.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

shocks; commodities; HICP; eurozone; bivariate analysis

PL

szok; towary; HICP; strefa euro; analiza dwuwymiarowa

• Wydawca: Czestochowa University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Management Studies
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 30, No. 1
• Strony: 136--152
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 60 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Janek Svatopluk

• Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, School of Expertness and Valuation, Czech Republic

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4684-1078

autor

Rousek Pavel

• Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, School of Expertness and Valuation, Czech Republic;

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2566-0203

autor

Matasová Tereza

• Pan-European university, Business and Management, Czech Republic

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3126-9128

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).