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The influence of external environment to the ferry lines and marine passenger terminals

Treść / Zawartość
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Marine passenger ports are integrated into the transport systems of cities and regions today. If there are sufficient developed mathematical forecasting models in the class of polynomial models, probability series, and a number of others, then the models describing the influence of the external environment on ferry market are not sufficient. The developed scheme of interaction between the participants of the cruise market and the mathematical model of the port as a technical system is presented in this research. The article substantiates new purposes to use the logistic function to assess the external environment. A mathematical model and the derivation of the new basic equation of the logistic function for ferry market are given. Analytical data were collected on the ports and terminals of the Adriatic Sea and the Baltic Sea, and data were selected of ship calls at the passenger port St. Petersburg “Marine Facade” (2019-2020). The article proposes the consideration of new various proportionality factors that will determine the demand for cruise transportation modeling in the short-term forecasting interval. A complete mathematical model is given taking into account the real schedule of the sea passenger port. The logistic function proposed in the article allows us to solve the forecasting problem in a new way in relation to the selection and evaluation of a cruise product. Moreover, it allows us to solve a group of economic problems related to promotion problem for particular cruise product on the market, allows us to evaluate the activity of passengers when they are choosing a cruise product, and allows us to make adjustments to the planned port working schedules and to make timely adjustments. The main advantage of the proposed model is an analytical assessment of the effect of the external environment, both on passenger ports and on ferry and cruise companies.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
203--214
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 22 poz.
Twórcy
  • University of Dubrovnik, Electrical Engineering and Computing Department, Cira Carica 4, 20 000 Dubrovnik, Croatia
  • Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, Bolshaya Morskaia 67, 190000 Saint-Petersburg, Russia
Bibliografia
  • 1. Baltic LINes: Shipping in the Baltic Sea – Past, present and future developments relevant for Maritime Spatial Planning. Project Report I. 2016. 35 p.
  • 2. Cruise Europe. Port Handbook (2018). Available at: http://www.cruiseeurope.com/.
  • 3. Krile, S. Optimization Approach in Multi-stop Routing of Small Islands. Scientific Journals of the Maritime University of Szczecin. 2018. Vol. 54. No. 126. P. 9-16. DOI: 10.17402/28.
  • 4. Mascaraque-Ramirez, C. & Para-Gonzalez, L. & Marco-Jornet, P. Journal of Ship Production and Design. Vol. 35. No. 4. 2019. P. 309-316.
  • 5. 2020 Cruise Industry 101. Available at: https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/pdf.
  • 6. Passengers transported to/from main ports - Croatia - quarterly data. Available at: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=mar_pa_qm_hr&lang=en.
  • 7. Cruise Luxe. Available at: http://www.cruiseluxe.ru/news/12135/.
  • 8. Barron, P. & Greenwood, A.B. Issues determining the development of cruise itineraries: a focus on the luxury market. Tourism in Marine Environments. 2006. Vol. 3(2). P. 89-100.
  • 9. Passenger Port of Saint-Petersburg “Marine Facade”. Available at: https://www.portspb.ru/.
  • 10. Maiorov, N.N. & Fetisov, V.A. Improvement of the quality of the sea passenger terminal based on methods of forecasting. Naše more (Our Sea). 2018. Vol. 65. No. 3. P. 135-140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17818/NM/2018/3.1.
  • 11. Makridakis, S.G. & Wheelwright, S.C. & Hyndman, R.J. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. New York: Wiley. 1998. 656 p.
  • 12. Agarwal, R. & Ergun, O. Ship Scheduling and Network Design for Cargo Routing in Liner Shipping Transportation Science. 2008. Vol. 42. No. 2. P. 175-190.
  • 13. 11 cruise trends of 2019. Available at: https://inflotcruises.com/ru/news/view/news-cruise-trends-2019.
  • 14. Сольницев, Р.И. Модели и методы принятия проектных решений. Санкт-Петербург: ЛЭТИ. 2010. 68 p. [In Russian: Solnitsev, R.I. The models and methods of design solutions. SaintPetersburg: LETI].
  • 15. Dirk, Helbing & P´eter, Moln´ar. Social force model for pedestrian dynamics. Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics. 1998. Vol. 51(5). P. 4282-4286. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.51.4282.
  • 16. Nicole, Ronald & Michael, Kirley. Pedestrian Modelling: A Comparative Study Using Agent-Based Cellular Automata. ICCS 2006: Computational Science – ICCS 2006. P. 248-255.
  • 17. Vassalos, D. & Kim, H. & Christiansen, G. & Majumder, J. A mesoscopic model for passenger evacuation in a virtual ship-sea environment and performance-based evaluation. Proceedings of Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics. Duisburg - Germany. 2001. P. 1549-1556.
  • 18. Maiorov, N.N. & Krile, S. Work analysis of maritime passenger terminals for particular region based on circos plot. Naše more (Our Sea). 2019. Vol 66. No. 2. P. 57-61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17818/NM/2019/2.2.
  • 19. Dong-Wook Song & Photis M. Panayides. Maritime Logistics: A Complete Guide to Effective Shipping and Port Management. Kogan Page. 2012. 336 p.
  • 20. Judith, Mulder, Rommert, Dekker. Methods for strategic liner shipping network design. European Journal of Operational Research. 2014. Vol. 235. No. 2. P. 367-377.
  • 21. Rzadkowski, G. & Głażewska, I. & Sawińska, K. A new approach to the logistic function with some applications. Foundations of Management. 2014. Vol. 6. No. 1. P. 57-70.
  • 22. News of Norwegian Cruise Line. Available at: http://www.cruiseluxe.ru/news/12261/.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021)
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-16745106-6d0e-4031-9ea1-30e25454ee82
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