Al-Qaeda network and its future in Africa

Perešin, A.; Zekulić, V.

doi:10.5604/17318157.1143821

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Tytuł artykułu

Al-Qaeda network and its future in Africa

Autorzy

Perešin A. , Zekulić V.

Treść / Zawartość

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DOI

10.5604/17318157.1143821

Warianty tytułu

Al-Kaida i jej przyszłość w Afryce

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

African weak central governments, undeveloped security sectors and continuing dissemination of ethnic, religious and other conflicts created fertile ground for development and strengthening of militant Islamist groups’ influence in the Sahel and North Africa. Inspired by al-Qaeda’s ideology, they have gained the new momentum through the formation of the formal alliances and the integration to the global jihad movement. Having in mind the geo-strategic importance of Africa, there are increasing estimates that the strengthening of the militant Islamism in Africa will additionally empower al-Qaeda and transform the continent into a new terrorist safe haven. Contrary to these assessments, this paper questions the long-term tenability of such strategies, based on the analysis of the root causes of the instability and weaknesses of the African state structures, as well as the local reasons that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamists. We believe that due to the differences in the interpretation of jihad, as well as the historic unreliability of the African partners, al-Qaeda will not be able to permanently secure implementation of its strategies and, consequently, will not be able to dependably count on Africa as its future permanent and firm stronghold. In spite of this, Africa’s security problems could impact overall international community, thus stimulating the key international actors to increase their counterterrorism activities aimed at removal of the causes that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamism on the continent.

Słabe rządy w Afryce, niewystarczająco rozwinięte sektory bezpieczeństwa oraz dalsze rozprzestrzenianie się konfliktów etnicznych, religijnych i innych stworzyło podatny grunt dla rozwoju i umacniania wpływów przez zbrojne grupy islamistyczne w Sahelu i Afryce Północnej. Zainspirowane ideologią Al-Kaidy, zyskały one nowy impet poprzez tworzenie formalnych sojuszy i integracji z globalnym ruchem dżihadu. Mając na uwadze geostrategiczne znaczenie Afryki, pojawia się coraz więcej szacunków, zgodnie z którymi wzmocnienie wojującego islamu w Afryce dodatkowo wzmocni pozycję Al-Kaidy i przekształci kontynent w nowe bezpieczne schronienie dla terrorystów. W przeciwieństwie do tych ocen, niniejszy artykuł kwestionuje możliwość długoterminowej obrony takich strategii. Zostało to dokonane w oparciu o analizę przyczyn niestabilności i słabości struktur państw afrykańskich, a także lokalnych przyczyn, które doprowadziły do wzmocnienia wojujących islamistów. Uważamy, że ze względu na różnice w interpretacji dżihadu, a także historyczną nierzetelność partnerów afrykańskich, Al-Kaida nie będzie w stanie wdrożyć swoich strategii, a tym samym nie będzie mogła liczyć na Afrykę jako swoją przyszłą stałą i trwałą twierdzę. Pomimo tego, problemy bezpieczeństwa w Afryce mogą mieć wpływ na całą społeczność międzynarodową, tym samym zmuszając kluczowych aktorów na arenie międzynarodowej do intensyfikacji działań antyterrorystycznych mających na celu usunięcie przyczyn prowadzących do wzmocnienia wojującego islamu na kontynencie.

Słowa kluczowe

Africa al-Qaeda jihad islam terrorism

Afryka Al-Kaida dżihad Islam terroryzm

Wydawca

Wydawnictwo Akademii Wojsk Lądowych imienia generała Tadeusza Kościuszki

Czasopismo

Zeszyty Naukowe / Wyższa Szkoła Oficerska Wojsk Lądowych im. gen. T. Kościuszki

Rocznik

2014

Tom

Nr 4

Strony

41--63

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 39 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Perešin A.

aperisin@gmail.com

Croatian Security National Authority, Zagreb, Croatia

autor

Zekulić V.

vzekulic@gmail.com

Croatian Defence Academy “Petar Zrinski”, Zagreb, Croatia

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Bibliografia

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