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Al-Qaeda network and its future in Africa

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PL
Al-Kaida i jej przyszłość w Afryce
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
African weak central governments, undeveloped security sectors and continuing dissemination of ethnic, religious and other conflicts created fertile ground for development and strengthening of militant Islamist groups’ influence in the Sahel and North Africa. Inspired by al-Qaeda’s ideology, they have gained the new momentum through the formation of the formal alliances and the integration to the global jihad movement. Having in mind the geo-strategic importance of Africa, there are increasing estimates that the strengthening of the militant Islamism in Africa will additionally empower al-Qaeda and transform the continent into a new terrorist safe haven. Contrary to these assessments, this paper questions the long-term tenability of such strategies, based on the analysis of the root causes of the instability and weaknesses of the African state structures, as well as the local reasons that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamists. We believe that due to the differences in the interpretation of jihad, as well as the historic unreliability of the African partners, al-Qaeda will not be able to permanently secure implementation of its strategies and, consequently, will not be able to dependably count on Africa as its future permanent and firm stronghold. In spite of this, Africa’s security problems could impact overall international community, thus stimulating the key international actors to increase their counterterrorism activities aimed at removal of the causes that lead to the strengthening of the militant Islamism on the continent.
PL
Słabe rządy w Afryce, niewystarczająco rozwinięte sektory bezpieczeństwa oraz dalsze rozprzestrzenianie się konfliktów etnicznych, religijnych i innych stworzyło podatny grunt dla rozwoju i umacniania wpływów przez zbrojne grupy islamistyczne w Sahelu i Afryce Północnej. Zainspirowane ideologią Al-Kaidy, zyskały one nowy impet poprzez tworzenie formalnych sojuszy i integracji z globalnym ruchem dżihadu. Mając na uwadze geostrategiczne znaczenie Afryki, pojawia się coraz więcej szacunków, zgodnie z którymi wzmocnienie wojującego islamu w Afryce dodatkowo wzmocni pozycję Al-Kaidy i przekształci kontynent w nowe bezpieczne schronienie dla terrorystów. W przeciwieństwie do tych ocen, niniejszy artykuł kwestionuje możliwość długoterminowej obrony takich strategii. Zostało to dokonane w oparciu o analizę przyczyn niestabilności i słabości struktur państw afrykańskich, a także lokalnych przyczyn, które doprowadziły do wzmocnienia wojujących islamistów. Uważamy, że ze względu na różnice w interpretacji dżihadu, a także historyczną nierzetelność partnerów afrykańskich, Al-Kaida nie będzie w stanie wdrożyć swoich strategii, a tym samym nie będzie mogła liczyć na Afrykę jako swoją przyszłą stałą i trwałą twierdzę. Pomimo tego, problemy bezpieczeństwa w Afryce mogą mieć wpływ na całą społeczność międzynarodową, tym samym zmuszając kluczowych aktorów na arenie międzynarodowej do intensyfikacji działań antyterrorystycznych mających na celu usunięcie przyczyn prowadzących do wzmocnienia wojującego islamu na kontynencie.
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Twórcy
autor
  • Croatian Security National Authority, Zagreb, Croatia
autor
  • Croatian Defence Academy “Petar Zrinski”, Zagreb, Croatia
Bibliografia
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  • 6. Dempsy, T., The Transformation of African Militaries, Understanding Africa – a Geo-graphical Approach, Center for Strategic Leadership US War College, Carlisle, 2009.
  • 7. Elisher, S., After Mali Comes Niger, Foreign Affairs, 12.02.2013.
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  • 10. Howe, H., Ambiguous Order: Military Forces in African States, Lynne Rienner, Boulder, 2001.
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  • 13. Masters, J., Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Council on Foreign Relations, January 24, 2013. [Available: 19.03.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.cfr. org/north-africa/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717.
  • 14. McIoughlin, C., Topic guide on Fragile States, The Governance and Social Development Resource Centre, University of Birmingham, 2012.
  • 15. Metz, S., Containment Should Guide U.S. Approach to al-Qaida in Africa, World Politics Review, January 23, 2013. [Available: 25.02.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12657/strategic-horizons-conta inment-should-guide-u-s-approach-to-al-qaida-in-africa.
  • 16. Pham, J.P., Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to US Homeland, Evidence to the US House of Representatives, p. 7., November 30, 2011. [Available: 20.09.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/f iles/Boko%20Haram-%20Emerging%20Threat%20to%20the%20US%20Homeland.pdf
  • 17. Ploch, L., Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The US Response, Congressional Research Service, Washington, November, 2010.
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  • 19. Rader, A., A Fine Talking Shop: the London Conference on Somalia, RUSI, February 22, 2013. [Available: 15.03.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.rusi. org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F46C3CD21920/.
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  • 21. Rivkin, A., Nation Building in Africa, Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, 1969.
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  • 23. Rollins, J. (5 February 2010). Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence and Implications for US Policy, Congressional Research Service, p. 15, February 5, 2010. [Available: 15.02.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41070.pdf.
  • 24. Schaefer, B., Creating an African Command: Bush Administration Makes the right call, The Heritage Foundation, 2006. [Available:10.09.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2007/02/creating-an-africa-com mand-bush-administration-makes-the-right-call.
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  • 30. The Economist, Mali and al-Qaeda, 10.11.2012.
  • 31. The Economist, Somalia comes to Uganda, 17.07.2013.
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  • 33. USA Today, Government, Main Rebels sign peace accord in Nigeria, 08.05.2006.
  • 34. US National Counterterrorism Center, www.nctc.gov.
  • 35. Vandervort, B., Wars of imperial conquest in Arica, Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1998.
  • 36. Walker, A., What is Boko Haram?, United State Institute of Peace, May 2012, [Available: 26.03.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://www.usip.org/publications/what-boko-haram.
  • 37. Whait, A., States in Development: Understanding State-building, Department for International Development, 2008., [Available: 1.12.2013.] Available on the Inter-net: http://tna.europarchive.org/20081212094836/http://dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/State -in-Development-Wkg-Paper.pdf.
  • 38. Wise, R., Al Shabaab, [in:] “Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Case Study” no. 2, p. 7., July 2011. [Available: 15.02.2013.] Available on the Internet: http://csis.org/files/publication/110715_Wise_AlShabaab_AQAM%20Futures%20Case%20Study_WEB.pdf.
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-1268785d-08d8-4d22-b114-627ebb871b66
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