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Seasonal precipitation variation in central-eastern Poland

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The purpose of the work is to characterise pluvial conditions in central-eastern Poland from the beginning of the 21st century (2001-2020). The analysis involved seven meteorological stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB): Białowieża, Legionowo, Pułtusk, Siedlce, Szepietowo, Terespol and Warsaw. The work contains the analysis of the annual and seasonal atmospheric precipitation pattern (summer, winter, spring and autumn) and its temporal and spatial variation throughout a 20-year period. Moreover, the percentage share of precipitation in each season in the annual sum was calculated. In order to analyse precipitation patterns in the study period, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) was applied. The average long-term annual atmospheric precipitation sum ranged from 557 mm at Terespol to 653 mm at Białowieża. The highest seasonal precipitation sum in the studied region was recorded for the summer (218 mm) whereas in spring and autumn, precipitation stayed at a similar level and amounted to 130 and 131 mm, respectively. The lowest precipitation was recorded in winter (109 mm). The highest percentage share of the atmospheric precipitation sum was associated with summer rainfall (from 35 to 38%), whereas the lowest in winter (from 18 to 20%). Comparisons of 2001-2010 and 2011-2020 decades revealed a decline in the share of summer precipitation in the annual sum at most of the stations, and an increase in the share of winter precipitation. The ITA demonstrated that the most significant trends in precipitation change occurred in summer and winter and the directions of the trends were different for each station.
Wydawca
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
76--82
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 34 poz., rys., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
  • University of Siedlce, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, 2 Konarskiego St., 08-110 Siedlce, Poland
  • University of Siedlce, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, 2 Konarskiego St., 08-110 Siedlce, Poland
Bibliografia
  • Alexander, L.V. et al. (2007) “Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: a global context,” Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56(1), pp. 1–18.
  • Bochenek, W. (2012) “Ocena zmian warunków opadowych na Stacji Naukowo-Badawczej IGiPZ PAN w Szymbarku w okresie 40 lat obserwacji (1971–2010) i ich wpływ na zmienność odpływu wody ze zlewni Bystrzanki [Evaluation of precipitation at the IG&SO PAS research station in Szymbark during 40-year period (1971–2010) and its impact on the variability of water runoff from the Bystrzanka stream basin],” Woda-Środowisko-Obszary Wiejskie, 12(2), pp. 29–44. Available at: https://www.itp.edu.pl/old/wydawnictwo/woda/zeszyt_38_2012/artykuly/Bochenek.pdf (Accessed: May 10, 2023.05.10).
  • Brienen, S. et al. (2013) “Regional centennial precipitation variability over Germany from extended observation records,” International Journal of Climatology, 33(9), pp. 2167–2184. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3581.
  • Brunetti, M. et al. (2002) “Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation series,” International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 22(5), pp. 543–558. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.751.
  • Chadwick, R., Boutle, I. and Martin, G. (2013) “Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics,” Journal of Climate, 26(11), pp. 3803–3822. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1.
  • Czarnecka, M. and Nidzgorska-Lencewicz, J. (2012) “Wieloletnia zmienność sezonowych opadów w Polsce [Multiannual variability of seasonal precipitation in Poland],” Woda-Środowisko-Obszary Wiejskie, 12, pp. 45–60. Available at: https://www.itp.edu.pl/old/wydawnictwo/woda/zeszyt_38_2012/artykuly/Czarnecka%20Nidzgorska.pdf (Accessed: May 10, 2023).
  • Degirmendžić, J., Kożuchowski, K. and Żmudzka, E. (2004) “Changes of air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2000 and their relationship to atmospheric circulation,” International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 24(3), pp. 291–310. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1010.
  • Fowler, H.J. and Kilsby, C.G. (2003) “A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000,” International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 23(11), pp. 1313–1334. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.943.
  • Grzywna, A. et al. (2020) “The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010,” Journal of Water and Land Development, 46, pp. 105–111. Available at: https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2020.134202.
  • Haddeland, I. et al. (2014) “Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp. 3251–3256. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222475110.
  • IPCC (2023) AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/ (Accessed: May 15, 2023).
  • Ivanov, S., Palamarchuk, J. and Pyshniak, D. (2009) “Precipitation statistics in Ukraine: Sensitivity to informational sources,” in P.Ya. Groisman, S.V. Ivanov (eds.) Regional aspects of climate terrestrial-hydrologic interactions in non-boreal Eastern Europe. Netherlands: Springer, pp. 23–32.
  • Kharin, V.V. et al. (2013) “Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble,” Climatic Change, 119, pp. 345–357. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8.
  • Knutti, R. and Sedláček, J. (2013) “Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections,” Nature Climate Change, 3(4), pp. 369–373. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncli-mate1716.
  • Kondracki, J. (1994) Geografia Polski: mezoregiony fizyczno-geograficzne [The geography of Poland: physical geographical mezoregions]. Warszawa: Wydawnictwa Naukowe PWN.
  • Kostopoulou, E. and Jones, P.D. (2005) “Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 89, pp. 69–85. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0122-2.
  • Kożuchowski, K. (1985) “Zmienność opadów atmosferycznych w Polsce w stuleciu 1881–1980 [Variation in precipitation in Poland in the years 1881–1980],” Acta Geographica Lodziensia, 48. Wrocław: Zakład Narodowy Imienia Ossolińskich, Warszawa: Wydaw. PAN.
  • Kożuchowski, K. (2004) “Zmienność opadów atmosferycznych w Polsce w XX i XXI wieku [The variability of precipitation totals in Poland in twentieth and twentieth-first century],” in K. Kożuchowski (ed.) Skala, uwarunkowania i perspektywy współczesnych zmian klimatycznych w Polsce [Scale, conditions and prospects of contemporary climate change in Poland]. Łódź: Wydawnictwo “Biblioteka”, pp. 47–58.
  • Kumar, S. et al. (2014) “Less reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections,” Earth’s Future, 2(3), pp. 152–160. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000159.
  • Moberg, A. and Jones, P.D. (2005) “Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99,” International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 25(9), pp. 1149–1171. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1163.
  • Osuch, M. et al. (2016) “Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(5), pp. 1947–1969. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1947-2016.
  • Polade, S.D. et al. (2014) “The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes,” Scientific Reports, 4(1), 4364. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04364.
  • Schewe, J. et al. (2014) “Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp. 3245–3250. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110.
  • Şen, Z. (2020) “Up-to-date statistical essentials in climate change and hydrology: A review,” International Journal of Global Warming, 22(4), pp. 392–431. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2020.111515.
  • Sillmann, J. et al. (2013) “Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(6), pp. 2473–2493. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188.
  • Skowera, B., Kopcińska, J. and Kopeć, B. (2014) “Changes in thermal and precipitation conditions in Poland in 1971–2010” Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW. Land Reclamation, 46(2), pp. 153–162. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2478/sggw-2014-0013.
  • Szwed, M. (2019) “Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(3–4), pp. 1003–1015. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2408-6.
  • Szyga-Pluta, K. (2018) “Zmienność czasowa i przestrzenna opadów atmosferycznych w Wielkopolsce w latach 1981–2014 [Temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric precipitation in Wielkopolska in the 1981–2014 period],” Przegląd Geograficzny, 90(3), pp. 495–516. Available at: https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2018.3.5.
  • Tomczyk, A. and Bednorz, E. (eds.) (2022) Atlas klimatu Polski (1991-2020) [Atlas of the climate of Poland (1991–2020)]. Poznań: Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe.
  • Tongal, H. (2019) “Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and extreme indices in the Antalya Basin, Turkey,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138(3–4), pp. 1735–1754. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02927-4.
  • Wibig, J. (2009) “The variability of daily precipitation totals in Poland (1951–2000),” Geographia Polonica, 82(1), pp. 21–32.
  • Zhou, W. et al. (2023) “Identification and frequency analysis of drought-flood abrupt alternation events using a daily-scale standardized weighted average of the precipitation index,” Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11, 1142259. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1142259.
  • Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, A. and Kopcińska, J. (2020) “Variation in atmospheric precipitation in Poland in the years 2001–2018,” Atmosphere, 11(8), 794. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080794.
  • Żmudzka, E. (2002) “O zmienności opadów atmosferycznych na obszarze Polski nizinnej w drugiej połowie XX wieku [Variation in atmospheric precipitation in lowland Poland in the second half of the 20th century],” Wiadomości Instytutu Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej, 25(4), pp. 23–38.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-10030aa2-f416-4787-8adc-38faacc8abf8
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