Powiadomienia systemowe
- Sesja wygasła!
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Foresight i proces generowania scenariuszy w Instytucie Fraunhofera ISI
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI analyses the origins and impacts of innovations and research, the short- and long-term developments of innovation processes, and the impacts of new technologies and services on society. Apart from clients from industry, academia and politics, the Fraunhofer ISI supports futures dialogues and the strategy process within the Fraunhofer-Society itself. For this purpose, scientifically based analysis, evaluation, as well as foresight methods are applied and developed. The term “foresight” refers to a structured debate about complex futures that is based on a systematic approach using various methods of future research [5, 15, 16]. One of them is the scenario method that provides a systematic process of creating alternative pictures of the future integrating quantitative and qualitative data. The scenario method concerns the interaction with the relevant actors. The focus is on active preparation for the long-term future by inspiring future thinking and supporting action towards shaping the future. For this purpose, new approaches are constantly being developed or known ones are further advanced. A system perspective is always at the heart of the scenario process design. Hence, a look into the future needs to be broad and comprehensive, including multiple perspectives. In addition, the scenario method is open to different pathways into the future and to discussing alternative developments. For decisions to be taken today, a future has to be selected, to prepare for it, or to make it real. One option may also be a business-as-usual scenario for the future. It is important to clarify which future is being analysed: a possible future (What can happen?), a probable future (Which options do we have?), a desirable future or a vision (Where do we want to go?).
W artykule przedstawiono wady i zalety generowania scenariuszy z wykorzystaniem warsztatów. Przeanalizowano dwa alternatywne podejścia ukierunkowane na zminimalizowanie wskazanych wad. Ponadto zaprezentowano typowe elementy procesu tworzenia scenariuszy w Instytucie Fraunhofera ISI w Niemczech.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
15--28
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys.
Twórcy
autor
- Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Germany
autor
- Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Germany
Bibliografia
- 1. Alsan, A.: Corporate foresight in emerging markets: Action research at a multinational company in Turkey, Futures, 2008, Vol. 40, pp. 47–55.
- 2. Amer, M., Daim, T.U., Jetter, A.: A review of scenario planning, Futures. München: Elsevier GmbH 2012.
- 3. Behlau, L., Kulas, A., Dönitz, E., Schirrmeister, E.: In welcher Zukunft forschen wir? der Europäische Forschungs- und Innovationsraum 2025. München: Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft 2010.
- 4. Brunner, A.: Kreativer denken, Konzepte und Methoden von A-Z. München: Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH 2008.
- 5. Cuhls, K.: Technikvorausschau in Japan. Ein Rückblick auf 30 Jahre Delphi-Expertenbefragungen. Heidelberg: Physica Verlag 1998.
- 6. Darkow, I.-L.: The involvement of middle management in strategy development – Development and implementation of a foresight-based approach, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014.
- 7. Dönitz, E.J.: Effizientere Szenariotechnik durch teilautomatische Generierung von Konsistenzmatrizen, Forschungs-/Entwicklungs-/Innovations- Management. Wiesbaden: Gabler GWV Fachverlage GmbH 2009.
- 8. Elliot, J., Heesterbeek, S., Lukensmeyer, C.J., Slocum, N.: Leutfaden: Leitfaden partizipatover Verfahren. Ein Handbuch für die Praxis. König-Baudouin-Stiftung, viWTA, ITA: Brüssel, Wien 2006.
- 9. Fink, A., Schlake, O., Siebe, A.: Erfolg durch Szenario-Management. Prinzip und Werkzeuge der strategischen Vorausschau. Frankfurt am Main: Campus Verlag 2001.
- 10. Götze, U.: Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung, 2., aktualisierte Auflage. Wiesbaden: Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag 1993.
- 11. Herzhof, M.: Szenario-Technik in der chemischen Industrie: Untersuchung von Software-Tools am Beispiel einer Studie zum Markt für Flammschutzmittel im Jahr 2010 und der praktischen Bedeutung der Szenario-Technik, 1. Auflage. Berlin: Pro Business 2005.
- 12. Kosow, H., Gaßner, R., Erdmann, L.; Luber, B.J.: Methoden der Zukunfts- und Szenarioanalyse Überblick, bewertung und Auswahlkriterien, WerkstattBericht Nr. 103. Berlin Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung IZT 2008.
- 13. Lipp, U., Will, H.: Das große Workshop-Buch. Konzeption, Inszenierung und Moderation von Klausuren, Besprechungen und Seminaren. 8., überarbeitete und erweiterte Auflage, Beltz Verlag: Weinheim, Basel 2008.
- 14. Martin, B.E: The origins of the concept of foresight in science and technology: an insider’s perspective, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77. Jg. 2010, pp. 1438–1447.
- 15. Martin, B.R.: Foresight in Science and Technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Nr. 2, 7. Jg. 1995a, pp. 139–168.
- 16. Martin, B.R.: Technology Foresight 6: A Review of Recent Overseas Programmes. London: HMSO 1995b.
- 17. O´Brien, F.A., Meadows, M.: Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, Vol. 80, pp. 643–656.
- 18. Postma, T.J.B.M.; Liebl, F.: How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2005, Vol. 72, pp. 161–173.
- 19. Quist, J., Thissen, W., Vergragt P.J.: The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011, Vol. 78, pp. 883–897.
- 20. Ringland, G.: Scenarios in Business. Wiley-VCH Verlag: Weinheim 2002.
- 21. Rohrbeck, R., Mahadjour, S., Knab, S., Frese T.: Benchmarking Report, Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies, European Corporate Foresight Group, Berlin, 2008.
- 22. Seidl, D.; Werle, F.: Strategisches Management und die Offenheit der Zukunft; in V. Tiberius (Hrsg.): Zukunftsorientierung in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre. Wiesbaden: Gabler 2011, pp. 287–299.
- 23. Tiberius, V.: Zukunftsorientierung in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden 2011, pp. 11–105.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-0fec8fc2-f4f9-4b55-be76-db867f058574