Long term projection of the demographic and financial evolution of the parliamentary pension scheme of Uganda

• Autorzy: Mukalazi Herbert , Larsson Torbjörn , Kasozi Juma , Mayambala Fred

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.37190/ord220307

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

We study the Parliamentary Pension Scheme of Uganda, a hybrid cash balance scheme which is contributory. It has two categories of members, the staff of the Parliamentary Commission and the Members of Parliament. A long term projection of the scheme’s demographic and financial evolution is done to asses its sustainability and fairness with respect to the two categories of members. The projection of the scheme’s future members is done using non-linear regression. The distribution of future members by age states is done by Markov model using frequencies of state transition of the scheme members. We project the future contributions, accumulated funds, benefits, asset and liability values together with associated funding ratios. The results show that the fund is neither sustainable nor fair with respect to the two categories of members.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

guaranteed pension; hybrid cash balance scheme; projection; demography; finance

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Operations Research and Decisions
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 32, No. 3
• Strony: 92--123
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 40 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Mukalazi Herbert

• Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Uganda

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9729-3943

autor

Larsson Torbjörn

• Department of Mathematics, Linköping University, Sweden

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2094-7376

autor

Kasozi Juma

• Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Uganda

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0941-9604

autor

Mayambala Fred

• Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Uganda

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).