Influence of COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on international oil markets

• Autorzy: Tvalchrelidze Alexander G. , Silagadze Avtandil

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17402/444

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

At the beginning of the COVID-19 coronavirus global pandemic, the oil market was crushed. In this period, the oil market was correlated with COVID-19 coronavirus world infection cases: more infected cases resulted in low oil prices, and the negative correlation between these two indices was very strong. Different factors determined the increase in both crude oil price and the number of oil futures contracts after April 20. Firstly, oil prices were driven by the coronavirus mortality rate, rather than by the absolute number of infection cases. The decisive driver for oil prices in the medium-term became pandemic development trends, instead of the actual epidemiological situation. This statement is proven by the statistical regression model of the interdependence between oil prices and COVID-19 coronavirus world mortality rate. Secondly, a gradual stable decrease in the coronavirus world mortality rate created an environment for the gradual restart of the world economy. Thirdly, the coronavirus mortality rate analysis provides investors with tangible guidelines to assess the medium-term sustainability of futures markets and, therefore, to elaborate investment strategies. Fourthly, after April 20, the oil market gradually achieved equilibrium, which is proven by a restored correlation between oil prices and the Euro-to-U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Three-month tendencies provide tangible guidelines for an optimistic forecast of the oil the market and maritime tanker business for the end of 2020 and all of 2021. So long as a new wave of COVID-19 does not dramatically increase mortality rates, the oil and maritime tanker trade market will regain the equilibrium it lost at the end of January

Słowa kluczowe

EN

COVID-19; coronavirus; pandemic; oil price; tanker; correlation; regression equation; mortality rate

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: nr 63 (135)
• Strony: 97--103
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 23 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tvalchrelidze Alexander G.

• Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University 1 Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia

autor

Silagadze Avtandil

• Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University 1 Chavchavadze Ave., 1079 Tbilisi, Georgia

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).