Short term clustering modeling of seismicity in Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece): a retrospective forecast test of the 2017 Mw =6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw =6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw =7.0 Samos earthquake sequences

• Autorzy: Kourouklas Christos , Mangira Ourania , Console Rodolfo , Papadimitriou Eleftheria , Karakostas Vassilios , Murru Maura

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-021-00583-9

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Short-term earthquake clustering properties in the Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece) area investigated through the application of an epidemic type stochastic model (Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence; ETES). The computations are performed in an earthquake catalog covering the period 2008 to 2020 and including 2332 events with a completeness threshold of Mc=3.1 and separated into two subcatalogs. The frst subcatalog is employed for the learning period, which is between 2008/01/01 and 2016/12/31 (N=1197 earthquakes), and used for the model’s parameters estimation. The second subcatalog from 2017/01/01 to 2020/11/10 (1135 earthquakes), in which the sequences of 2017 Mw=6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw=6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw=7.0 Samos main shocks are included, and used for a retrospective forecast testing based on the constructed model. The estimated model parameters imply a swarm like behavior, indicating the ability of earthquakes of small to moderate magnitude above Mc to produce their own ofsprings, along with the stronger earthquakes. The retrospective evaluation of the model is examined in the three aftershock sequences, where lack of foreshocks resulted in low predictability of the mainshocks, with estimated daily probabilities around 10–5. Immediately after the mainshocks occurrence the model adjusts with notable resemblance between the expected and observed aftershock rates, particularly for earthquakes with M≥3.5.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

earthquake clustering; ETES model; aftershock sequence; short-term earthquake occurrence probabilities; Eastern Aegean

PL

grupowanie trzęsień ziemi; model ETES; sekwencja wstrząsów wtórnych; krótkoterminowe prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia trzęsienia ziemi; wschodnie Morze Egejskie

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Vol. 69, no. 3
• Strony: 1085--1099
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 50 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Kourouklas Christos

• Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1370-3824

autor

Mangira Ourania

• Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Console Rodolfo

• Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area (CGIAM), Potenza, Italy
• Istituto Nazionale Di Geofsica E Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy

autor

Papadimitriou Eleftheria

• Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Karakostas Vassilios

• Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Murru Maura

• Istituto Nazionale Di Geofsica E Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy

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