Short term clustering modeling of seismicity in Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece): a retrospective forecast test of the 2017 Mw =6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw =6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw =7.0 Samos earthquake sequences

Kourouklas, Christos; Mangira, Ourania; Console, Rodolfo; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vassilios; Murru, Maura

doi:10.1007/s11600-021-00583-9

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Short term clustering modeling of seismicity in Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece): a retrospective forecast test of the 2017 Mw =6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw =6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw =7.0 Samos earthquake sequences

Autorzy

Kourouklas Christos , Mangira Ourania , Console Rodolfo , Papadimitriou Eleftheria , Karakostas Vassilios , Murru Maura

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-021-00583-9

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

Short-term earthquake clustering properties in the Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece) area investigated through the application of an epidemic type stochastic model (Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence; ETES). The computations are performed in an earthquake catalog covering the period 2008 to 2020 and including 2332 events with a completeness threshold of Mc=3.1 and separated into two subcatalogs. The frst subcatalog is employed for the learning period, which is between 2008/01/01 and 2016/12/31 (N=1197 earthquakes), and used for the model’s parameters estimation. The second subcatalog from 2017/01/01 to 2020/11/10 (1135 earthquakes), in which the sequences of 2017 Mw=6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw=6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw=7.0 Samos main shocks are included, and used for a retrospective forecast testing based on the constructed model. The estimated model parameters imply a swarm like behavior, indicating the ability of earthquakes of small to moderate magnitude above Mc to produce their own ofsprings, along with the stronger earthquakes. The retrospective evaluation of the model is examined in the three aftershock sequences, where lack of foreshocks resulted in low predictability of the mainshocks, with estimated daily probabilities around 10–5. Immediately after the mainshocks occurrence the model adjusts with notable resemblance between the expected and observed aftershock rates, particularly for earthquakes with M≥3.5.

Słowa kluczowe

earthquake clustering ETES model aftershock sequence short-term earthquake occurrence probabilities Eastern Aegean

grupowanie trzęsień ziemi model ETES sekwencja wstrząsów wtórnych krótkoterminowe prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia trzęsienia ziemi wschodnie Morze Egejskie

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2021

Tom

Vol. 69, no. 3

Strony

1085--1099

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 50 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Kourouklas Christos

ckouroukl@geo.auth.gr

Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1370-3824

autor

Mangira Ourania

omangira@geo.auth.gr

Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Console Rodolfo

rodolfo.console@ingv.it

Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area (CGIAM), Potenza, Italy
Istituto Nazionale Di Geofsica E Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy

autor

Papadimitriou Eleftheria

ritsa@geo.auth.gr

Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Karakostas Vassilios

vkarak@geo.auth.gr

Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Murru Maura

maura.murru@ingv.it

Istituto Nazionale Di Geofsica E Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy

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Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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