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Artificial Intelligence Based Flood Forecasting for River Hunza at Danyor Station in Pakistan

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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Floods can cause significant problems for humans and can damage the economy. Implementing a reliable flood monitoring warning system in risk areas can help to reduce the negative impacts of these natural disasters. Artificial intelligence algorithms and statistical approaches are employed by researchers to enhance flood forecasting. In this study, a dataset was created using unique features measured by sensors along the Hunza River in Pakistan over the past 31 years. The dataset was used for classification and regression problems. Two types of machine learning algorithms were tested for classification: classical algorithms (Random Forest, RF and Support Vector Classifier, SVC) and deep learning algorithms (Multi-Layer Perceptron, MLP). For the regression problem, the result of MLP and Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithms were compared based on their mean square, root mean square and mean absolute errors. The results obtained show that the accuracy of the RF classifier is 0.99, while the accuracies of the SVC and MLP methods are 0.98; moreover, in the case of flood prediction, the SVR algorithm outperforms the MLP approach.
Rocznik
Strony
59--77
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 35 poz., rys., tab., wykr
Twórcy
  • The University of Lahore, 1-km off Defence Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam campus Canal Bank Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Lahore, 1-km off Defence Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
autor
  • The University of Lahore, 1-km off Defence Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam campus Canal Bank Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Lahore, 1-km off Defence Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam campus Canal Bank Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
  • The University of Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam campus Canal Bank Road, Lahore, Pakistan, 54000
Bibliografia
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  • Campolo M., Andreussi P., Soldati A. (1999) River flood forecasting with a neural network model, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1191–1197.
  • Darbandi S., Pourhosseini F. A. (2018) River flow simulation using a multilayer perceptron-firefly algorithm model, Applied Water Science, 8 (3), 1–9.
  • Delashmit W. H., Manry M. T. (2005) Recent developments in multilayer perceptron neural networks, Proceedings of the seventh Annual Memphis Area Engineering and Science Conference, MAESC.
  • Dtissibe F. Y., Ari A. A. A., Titouna C., Thiare O., Gueroui A. M. (2020) Flood forecasting based on an artificial neural network scheme., Natural Hazards, 104 (2), 1211–1237.
  • Elsafi S. H. (2014) Artificial neural networks (ANNs) for flood forecasting at Dongola Station in the River Nile, Sudan, Alexandria Engineering Journal, 53 (3), 655–662.
  • Furquim G., Pessin G., Faic¸al B. S., Mendiondo E. M., Ueyama J. (2016) Improving the accuracy of a flood forecasting model by means of machine learning and chaos theory, Neural Computing and Applications, 27 (5), 1129–1141.
  • Gholami V., Darvari Z., Mohseni Saravi M. (2015) Artificial neural network technique for rainfall temporal distribution simulation (Case study: Kechik region), Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 13 (1), 53–60.
  • Ghorbani M. A., Zadeh H. A., Isazadeh M., Terzi O. (2016) A comparative study of artificial neural network (MLP, RBF) and support vector machine models for river flow prediction, Environmental Earth Sciences, 75 (6), 476.
  • Ghumman A. R., Ahmad S., Hashmi H. N. (2018) Performance assessment of artificial neural networks and support vector regression models for stream flow predictions, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,190 (12), 704.
  • Hussain D., Hussain T., Khan A. A., Naqvi S. A. A., Jamil A. (2020) A deep learning approach for hydrological time-series prediction: A case study of Gilgit river basin, Earth Science Informatics, 13 (3), 915–927.
  • Hussain D., Khan A. A. (2020) Machine learning techniques for monthly river flow forecasting of Hunza River, Pakistan, Earth Science Informatics, 1–11.
  • Hong J. L., Hong K. (2016) Flood forecasting for Klang river at Kuala Lumpur using artificial neural networks, International Journal of Hybrid Information Technology, 9 (3), 39–60.
  • Jabbari A., Bae D. H. (2018) Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Accuracy Enhancements of Real-Time Flood Forecasting in the Imjin Basin, Water, 10 (11), 1626.
  • Kolbas¸i A., Aydın U¨ . (2019) A comparison of the outlier detecting methods: an application on Turkish foreign trade data, J. Math. Stat. Sci., 5, 213–234.
  • Kumar V., Yadav S. M. (2021) Real-Time Flood Analysis Using Artificial Neural Network, [In:] Recent Trends in Civil Engineering, Springer, Singapore, 973–986.
  • Latt Z. Z. (2015) Application of feedforward artificial neural network in Muskingum flood routing: a black-box forecasting approach for a natural river system, Water Resources Management, 29 (14), 4995–5014.
  • Legates D. R., McCabe Jr G. J. (1999) Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation, Water Resources Research, 35 (1), 233–241.
  • Liu F., Xu F., Yang S. (2017) A flood forecasting model based on deep learning algorithm via integrating stacked auto encoders with BP neural network, 2017 IEEE third International conference on multimedia big data (BigMM), IEEE, 58–61.
  • Mitra P., Ray R., Chatterjee,R., Basu R., Saha P., Raha S., Saha S. (2016) Flood forecasting Rusing Internet of things and artificial neural networks, 2016 IEEE 7th Annual Information Technology, Electronics and Mobile Communication Conference (IEMCON), IEEE, 1–5.
  • Patel S. S., Ramachandran P. (2015) A comparison of machine learning techniques for modeling river flow time series: the case of upper Cauvery river basin, Water Resources Management, 29 (2), 589–602.
  • Phitakwinai S., Auephanwiriyakul S., Theera-Umpon N. (2016) Multilayer perceptron with Cuckoo search inwater level prediction for flood forecasting, 2016 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), 519–524.
  • Puttinaovarat S., Horkaew P. (2020) Flood Forecasting System Based on Integrated Big and Crowdsource Data by Using Machine Learning Techniques, IEEE Access, 8, 5885–5905.
  • Rezaeianzadeh M., Tabari H., Yazdi A. A., Isik S., Kalin, L. (2014) Flood flow forecasting using ANN, ANFIS and regression models, Neural Computing and Applications, 25 (1), 25–37.
  • Ruslan F. A., Tajuddin M., Adnan R. (2015) Flood prediction modeling using improved MLPNN structure: Case study Kuala Lumpur, 2015 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC), IEEE, 101–105.
  • Sayari S., Meymand A. M., Aldallal A., Zounemat-Kermani M. (2022) Meta-learner methods in forecasting regulated and natural river flow, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 15 (11), 1–12.
  • Schoppa L., Disse M., Bachmair S. (2020) Evaluating the performance of random forest for large-scale flood discharge simulation, Journal of Hydrology, 590, 125531.
  • Tahmasebi Biragani Y., Yazdandoost F., Ghalkhani H. (2016) Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks: an Application of Multi-Model Data Fusion Technique, Journal of Hydraulic Structures, 2 (2), 62–73.
  • Tiwari M. K., Chatterjee C. (2010) Development of an accurate and reliable hourly flood forecasting model using wavelet–bootstrap–ANN (WBANN) hybrid approach, Journal of Hydrology, 394 (3–4), 458–470. Vishwanathan S. V. M., M. Narasimha Murty (2002) SSVM: a simple SVM algorithm, Proceedings of the 2002 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. IJCNN’02 (Cat. No. 02CH37290), IEEE, Vol. 3, 2393–2398.
  • Wang J., Shi P., Jiang P., Hu J., Qu S., Chen X., Xiao Z. (2017) Application of BP neural Network algorithm in traditional hydrological model for flood forecasting, Water, 9 (1), 48.
  • Widiasari I. R., Nugroho L. E. (2017), Deep learning multilayer perceptron (MLP) for flood prediction model using wireless sensor network based hydrology time series data mining, 2017 International Conference on Innovative and Creative Information Technology (ICITech), IEEE, 1–5
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-089a05d5-0109-4af3-b218-a4bf06f427a5
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