A Bayesian model of group decision-making

• Autorzy: Wibig T. , Karbowiak M. , Jaszczyk M.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5277/ord160106

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A change in the opinion of a group, treated as a network of communicating agents, caused by the accumulation of new information is expected to depend on communication within the group, cooperation and, possibly, a kind of conformity mechanism. We have developed a mathematical model of the creation of a group decision, including this effect. This is based on a Bayesian description of inference and can be used for both conscious and inattentive acts. This model can be used to study the effect of whether a leader exists or not and other group inhomogeneities, as well as establishing the (statistical) significance and quality of a group decision. The proposed evolution equations explain in a straightfor-ward, analytical way some general properties of the general phenomenon of conformity (groupthink). To illustrate this theoretical idea in practice, we created an information technology (IT) tool to study the effect of conformity in a small group. As an example, we present results of an experiment performed using a network of students’ tablets, which could not only measure group pressure, but also conduct and control collaborative thinking in the group.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

conformity; decision-making; Bayesian inference; groupthink; cooperation

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Operations Research and Decisions
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: Vol. 26, No. 1
• Strony: 95--110
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 16 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Wibig T.

• Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland
• Astrophysics Division, National Centre for Nuclear Research, Lodz, Poland

autor

Karbowiak M.

• Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland

autor

Jaszczyk M.

• Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland

Bibliografia

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• [2] ASCH S., Effects of group pressure on the modification and distortion of judgments, [in:] T.M.N.G.E. Swanson, E.L. Hartley (Eds.), Readings in Social Psychology Holt, New York 1952, 2.
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• [7] JANIS I., Victims of groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes, Hough-ton Mifflin, Oxford 1972.
• [8] KATZOFF E., The measurement of conformity, Psychometrika, 1942, 7, 31.
• [9] LYNCH G., Calculations of upper limits, Particle Data Group Notes (PDG), 03.1993.
• [10] ROSE J., Diverse perspectives on the groupthink theory. A literary review, Emerging Leadership Journeys, 2011, 4, 37.
• [11] SCHWARTZ J., WALD M.L., Smart people working collectively can be dumber than the sum of their brains: groupthink is 30 years old, and still going strong, New York Times, March 9, 2003 (reprinted in http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2003/Smart-People-Dumber9mar03.htm).
• [12] SZATHMARY E., To group or not to group?, Science, 2011, 334, 1648.
• [13] TURNER M.E., PRATKANIS A.R., PROBASCO P., LEVE C., Threat, cohesion, and group effectiveness: Testing a social identity maintenance perspective on groupthink, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1992, 63, 781.
• [14] WHYTE W.H., Groupthink, (Fortune 1952). (http://fortune.com/2012/07/22/groupthink-fortune-1952/)
• [15] WIBIG T., On the discovery of the GZK cut-off, Pramana – Journal of Physics, 2009, 73, 807.
• [16] WIBIG T., JASZCZYK M., DAM-O P., YASHAGIN E., Using modern informatics tools for smart decision-making in educational process, International Journal of Scientific Knowledge Computing and Information Technology, 2014, 4, 10.

Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę.