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A Bayesian model of group decision-making

Treść / Zawartość
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
A change in the opinion of a group, treated as a network of communicating agents, caused by the accumulation of new information is expected to depend on communication within the group, cooperation and, possibly, a kind of conformity mechanism. We have developed a mathematical model of the creation of a group decision, including this effect. This is based on a Bayesian description of inference and can be used for both conscious and inattentive acts. This model can be used to study the effect of whether a leader exists or not and other group inhomogeneities, as well as establishing the (statistical) significance and quality of a group decision. The proposed evolution equations explain in a straightfor-ward, analytical way some general properties of the general phenomenon of conformity (groupthink). To illustrate this theoretical idea in practice, we created an information technology (IT) tool to study the effect of conformity in a small group. As an example, we present results of an experiment performed using a network of students’ tablets, which could not only measure group pressure, but also conduct and control collaborative thinking in the group.
Rocznik
Strony
95--110
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 16 poz., rys.
Twórcy
autor
  • Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland
  • Astrophysics Division, National Centre for Nuclear Research, Lodz, Poland
autor
  • Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland
autor
  • Faculty of Physics and Applied Informatics, University of Lodz, ul. Pomorska 149/153, 90-236 Łódź, Poland
Bibliografia
  • [1] ASCH S., Effects of group pressure on the modification and distortion of judgments, [in:] H. Guetzkow (Ed.), Handbook of Research Methods in Personality Psychology, Carnegie Press, Pittsburgh 1951, 177.
  • [2] ASCH S., Effects of group pressure on the modification and distortion of judgments, [in:] T.M.N.G.E. Swanson, E.L. Hartley (Eds.), Readings in Social Psychology Holt, New York 1952, 2.
  • [3] BERINGER J. et al. (Particle Data Group), Review of particle physics, Physical Review D, 2012, 86, 010001.
  • [4] CMS Collaboration, A new boson with a mass of 125 GeV observed with the CMS experiment at the large hadron collider, Science, 2012, 338, 1569.
  • [5] DE CECCO S., On behalf of ATLAS and CMS collaborations, ATL-PHYS-SLIDE, 2013, 191.
  • [6] JACQUET J., HAUERT C., TRAULSEN A., MILINSKI M., Shame and honour drive cooperation, Biology Letters, 2011, 7, 899.
  • [7] JANIS I., Victims of groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes, Hough-ton Mifflin, Oxford 1972.
  • [8] KATZOFF E., The measurement of conformity, Psychometrika, 1942, 7, 31.
  • [9] LYNCH G., Calculations of upper limits, Particle Data Group Notes (PDG), 03.1993.
  • [10] ROSE J., Diverse perspectives on the groupthink theory. A literary review, Emerging Leadership Journeys, 2011, 4, 37.
  • [11] SCHWARTZ J., WALD M.L., Smart people working collectively can be dumber than the sum of their brains: groupthink is 30 years old, and still going strong, New York Times, March 9, 2003 (reprinted in http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2003/Smart-People-Dumber9mar03.htm).
  • [12] SZATHMARY E., To group or not to group?, Science, 2011, 334, 1648.
  • [13] TURNER M.E., PRATKANIS A.R., PROBASCO P., LEVE C., Threat, cohesion, and group effectiveness: Testing a social identity maintenance perspective on groupthink, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1992, 63, 781.
  • [14] WHYTE W.H., Groupthink, (Fortune 1952). (http://fortune.com/2012/07/22/groupthink-fortune-1952/)
  • [15] WIBIG T., On the discovery of the GZK cut-off, Pramana – Journal of Physics, 2009, 73, 807.
  • [16] WIBIG T., JASZCZYK M., DAM-O P., YASHAGIN E., Using modern informatics tools for smart decision-making in educational process, International Journal of Scientific Knowledge Computing and Information Technology, 2014, 4, 10.
Uwagi
PL
Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-088f3851-bd7d-495f-b872-475d704e835c
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