Nonhomogenous Poisson process application to modelling accidents number at Baltic Sea waters and ports

• Autorzy: Grabski F.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow to build probabilistic models concerning incidents or (and) accidents. Counting processes are applied for modelling accidents number in Baltic Sea region in the given time interval. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its extensions especially a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The models of accidents number in the sea and seaports are here presented. Moreover some procedures of the model parameters identification are presented in the paper. Estimation of model parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM (2014) and Interreg project Baltic LINes (2016-2019).

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Poisson process; safety characteristics

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 1
• Strony: 39--46
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Grabski F.

• Naval University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

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• [3]Feller, W. (1964). On semi-Markov processes. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 1964; 51; No 4: 653659.
• [4] Fisz, M. (1969). Probability and Mathematical Statistics., Warsaw PWN; (in Polish).
• [5] Grabski F. (2002). Semi-Markov models of reliability and operation. Warsaw : IBS PAN; (in Polish).
• [6] Grabski, F. (2015). Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in Systems Reliability and Maintenance. Elsevier; Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberg, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Sydney.
• [7] Limnios, N. & Oprisan, G. (2001). Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Boston; Birkhauser.
• [8] Shiryayev, A. N. (1984). Probability. SpringerVerlag, New York, Berlin, Heidelberg, Tokyo.
• [9] Baltic LINes (2016). Shipping in the Baltic Sea – Past, present and future developments relevant for Maritime Spatial Planning. Project Report I. 35 p.
• [10] HELCOM (2014). Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area during 2012. 43 pp.
• [11] HELCOM (2014). Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea in 2013.

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).