Oil prices and investments across the Eastern European countries

• Autorzy: Żyra Joanna , Myronova Marianna

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.34659/eis.2025.92.1.1045

Warianty tytułu

PL

Ceny ropy a inwestycje w krajach Europy Wschodniej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This research examines the impact of oil prices on investment dynamics in Eastern European countries using quarterly data from 2010 to 2023. The main objective is to assess the short-run and long-run effects of oil price fluctuations on investment levels, considering the role of exchange rates and interest rates as additional macroeconomic determinants. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which allows for the analysis of both immediate and equilibrium relationships between variables. Specifically, a positive long-run impact of oil prices on investment is observed in 10 out of 11 countries. A negative impact is only found in Croatia, while in Slovakia, oil prices do not affect investment. Regarding short-run effects, there is a strong positive correlation between oil price and investment in Slovenia and Latvia, whereas a negative effect is found for 6 countries. It is worth noting that using the real exchange rate instead of the nominal one significantly weakens the relationship between oil prices and investment. Among other findings, investment is positively associated with higher interest rates in 7 countries, while the intuitively expected negative effects are only found in Hungary and Poland. Investment reacts more strongly to the nominal exchange rate compared to the effect of the real exchange rate. Although the long-run impact of the exchange rate is predominantly negative, this does not hold for short-run effects. In particular, our results suggest a significant heterogeneity of exchange rate effects across the studied countries.

PL

W artykule poddano analizie wpływ cen ropy na dynamikę procesów inwestycyjnych w krajach Europy Wschodniej w oparciu o dane kwartalne z lat 2010–2023. Głównym celem jest ocena krótko- i długoterminowych skutków wahań cen ropy na poziom inwestycji, z uwzględnieniem kursów walutowych i stóp procentowych jako dodatkowych determinant makroekonomicznych. W badaniach wykorzystano model autoregresyjny z rozłożonym opóźnieniem (ARDL), który pozwala na analizę zarówno krótkoterminowej dynamiki, jak i długoterminowych zależności między zmiennymi. W szczególności zaobserwowano pozytywny, długoterminowy wpływ cen ropy na inwestycje w 10 z 11 badanych krajów. Jedynie w Chorwacji zaobserwowano negatywny wpływ, natomiast w Słowacji wzrost ceny ropy nie wywierał istotnego wpływu na inwestycje. W krótkim okresie silna dodatnia korelacja między ceną ropy a inwestycjami występuje w Słowenii i na Łotwie, podczas gdy w 6 krajach, w tym na Węgrzech i w Chorwacji, odnotowano efekt negatywny. Należy zauważyć, że zastosowanie realnego kursu walutowego zamiast nominalnego znacząco osłabia korelację między cenami ropy a inwestycjami. Wśród innych ustaleń stwierdzono, że inwestycje są pozytywnie skorelowane z wyższymi stopami procentowymi w 7 krajach, podczas gdy intuicyjnie oczekiwane negatywne efekty występują jedynie na Węgrzech i w Polsce. Inwestycje reagują silniej na nominalny kurs walutowy niż na kurs realny. Chociaż długoterminowy wpływ kursu walutowego jest przeważnie negatywny, nie dotyczy to efektów krótkoterminowych. Wyniki wskazują na znaczną heterogeniczność wpływu kursu walutowego w badanych krajach.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

investments; oil price; exchange rate; ARDL; Eastern Europe

PL

inwestycje; cena ropy naftowej; kurs walutowy; ARDL; Europa Wschodnia

• Wydawca: Polskie Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
• Czasopismo: Economics and Environment
• Rocznik: 2025
• Tom: No. 1
• Strony: art. no. 1045
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 31 poz., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Żyra Joanna

• College of Social Studies, Cracow University of Technology, Warszawska Street 24, 31-155 Cracow, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1562-5639

autor

Myronova Marianna

• Lviv University of Trade and Economics

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1438-4394

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