Forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland by province

• Autorzy: Gorzelanczyk Piotr

Warianty tytułu

EN

Prognozowanie liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce według województw

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Każdego roku na polskich drogach ginie bardzo duża liczba osób. Z roku na rok wartość ta spada, ale liczba ta nadal jest bardzo wysoka. Pandemia znacznie zmniejszyła liczbę wypadków drogowych, ale wartość ta nadal jest bardzo wysoka. Z tego powodu należy dowiedzieć się, w których województwach dochodzi do największej liczby wypadków drogowych oraz poznać prognozę wypadków na najbliższe lata, aby móc zrobić wszystko, aby tę liczbę zminimalizować. Celem artykułu jest sporządzenie prognozy liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce w podziale na województwa. W tym celu przeanalizowano miesięczne dane dotyczące liczby wypadków w Polsce w latach 2007-2021 pochodzące ze statystyk Policji oraz dokonano prognozy na lata 2022-2024. Na podstawie uzyskanych danych można stwierdzić, że pandemia spowodowała spadek liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce średnio o 21%. Rozrzut w zależności od województwa waha się w przedziale: 10% dla województwa lubuskiego do prawie 53% dla województwa lubelskiego. Spadek jest najbardziej zauważalny w województwach lubelskim, wielkopolskim i małopolskim. Ponadto prognozy pokazują, że w obecnej sytuacji możemy spodziewać się dalszego spadku liczby wypadków drogowych w Polsce. Wyniki badania pokazują, że nadal możemy spodziewać się podobnego poziomu wypadków drogowych jak przed pandemią z minimalnym spadkiem na polskich drogach, ale panująca pandemia zniekształca uzyskane wyniki. Do prognozowania liczby wypadków drogowych wykorzystano szeregi czasowe i modele wykładnicze.

EN

Every year a very large number of people die on Polish roads. From year to year, the value decreases, but the number is still very high. The pandemic has significantly reduced the number of road accidents, but the value is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out which provinces have the highest number of traffic accidents and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize this number. The purpose of the article is to make a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland by province. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of accidents in Poland in 2007-2021 from the statistics of the Police were analyzed, and a forecast was made for 2022-2024. Based on the data obtained, it can be said that the pandemic caused a decrease in the number of road accidents in Poland by an average of 21%. The spreads depending on the province sniff in the range: 10% for Lubuskie Voivodeship to almost 53% for Lubelskie Voivodeship. The decrease is most noticeable in the Lubelskie, Wielkopolskie and Małopolskie provinces. In addition, forecasts show that in the current situation we can expect a further decrease in the number of road accidents in Poland. The results of the study show that we can still expect a similar level of road accidents as before the pandemic with a minimal decrease on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic distorts the results obtained. Time series and exponential models were used to forecast the number of traffic accidents.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

wypadek drogowy; Pandemia; polska; prognozowanie; wygładzanie wykładnicze

EN

traffic accident; pandemic; Poland; forecasting; exponential smoothing

• Wydawca: Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Komunikacji Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Komunikacyjny
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: R. 79, nr 4/5
• Strony: 13--22
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 57 poz., tab., rys., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Gorzelanczyk Piotr

• Akademia Nauk Stosowanych im. Stanisława Staszica w Pile

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9662-400X

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025)