Development of cause-effect dependence model of undesirable events using Bayes network

• Autorzy: Tchórzewska-Cieślak B. , Pietrucha-Urbanik K. , Szpak D.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the paper the method of cause and effect analysis of undesirable events using the Bayesian networks is presented. For the analysis, due to the complexity of the calculations, it is proposed to use Java Bayes program as a free and simple tool to support Bayesian analysis. Bayesian estimation allows to identify the probability of the event occurrence. For this reason its use was proposed to determine the safety probability. Using Bayes' theorem is also possible to modify initial judgement about the situation with the use of a priori probability so that a new situation described by a posteriori probability arises. In this sense, by Bayes' theorem the data can be sequentially processed, including considerations for newer information, and thereby create a more reliable basis for decision making for the system operator. In the paper, the methodology was presented, which can be extended in order to improve the detection and monitoring of undesirable events in infrastructure.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

bayes network; risk; security

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 1
• Strony: 149--156
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 27 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tchórzewska-Cieślak B.

• Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland

autor

Pietrucha-Urbanik K.

• Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland

autor

Szpak D.

• Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).