Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Monetary Policy of the Baltic States - new EU Members

100%

Przybylska-Kapuscinska W.

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nr 19

31-51

EN

On 1 May 2004, new East and Central European states that had made a major breakthrough in their social and economic system found themselves within the European Union area. A fundamental decision of capital importance for their future had been the transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies. This required an extreme determination, consistence and sacrifices, and entailed different social and economic costs. The economies in transformation carried out many indispensable reforms and among them changes in the functioning of the banking sector, development of an independent central bank and choice of a defined monetary policy strategy. The fundamental problem in the monetary policy of the East and Central European countries was the necessity to get under control the high inflation and build up the credibility of their national currencies in the face of both the changing external conditions and the differentiation of the political, economic and social situation in the group of the countries in question. Stabilization of prices on a low level became the main criterion in the adaptation processes of those countries on their road to integration with the European Community structures. This criterion also became the most important determinant of the monetary policy and its strategies adopted by the individual countries running for the EU membership. The paper focused on presentation of the methods adopted by the group of East European Baltic countries in the conduct of their economic policy. Thus, the monetary policy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was presented. These three countries distinguish themselves among the new EU members by their geopolitical situation because all of them have emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and constitute a relatively homogeneous group of economies in transformation. Certain elements of homogeneity can also be observed in the monetary policy adopted by them. In the first part of the paper, the essence of the exchange rate strategy applied in practice by the new Baltic EU member countries was characterized. Then, in consideration of the fact that the most important conditions substantial from the point of view of the monetary policy, and related to the accession of the countries in question to the Eurosystem, were the independence of the central bank and the definition of the main goal of their monetary policy so as to make it compatible with the goal of the European Central Bank, the process of shaping the monetary policy in the individual countries was presented in more detail, in concentrating on the problem of institutional independence of the central bank and on the main goals and instruments of the monetary policy. Also, the course of the inflationary processes over the period of 1997-2005 was monitored.

2

The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary.

100%

Varpalotai V.

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tom 53

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nr 12

1135-1154

EN

The paper presents calculations of the optimal horizons for inflation targeting in Hungary, using small-scale macro and vector auto-regressive models, relying on the theoretical framework of Batini and Nelson (2000). Given the assumed parameter values of central-bank preference, it was found that current National Bank practice, i. e. putting the inflation forecast for the next one to one-and-a-half years into the policy rule and using this horizon in its communication, can be regarded as optimal with respect to welfare analysis. In most cases of potential future shocks, this horizon also proved long enough to bring inflation back on target following an optimal monetary policy. However, there is no precluding the probability of future shocks that divert inflation from its target for longer than one to one-and-a-half years, when MNB follows an optimal monetary policy.

3

The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary

100%

Cseermely A.

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tom 53

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nr 12

1058-1079

EN

The article sums up the economic thinking behind the system for targeting inflation in Hungary and the main economic-policy experiences with this. It presents briefly a framework model that the author sees as best reflecting present central-bank thinking about the functioning of the economy. It summarizes what normative conclusions can be drawn with the model about optimal monetary policy, and how these theoretical issues are reflected in the monetary systems for targeting inflation. The article then turns to international experience with the effectiveness and success of the regime. Finally, the author looks back over five years at the conditions that accompanied the targeting of inflation, at subsequent experiences with the economic-policy issues of that period, and at operation of the system so far.

4

KOORDINACE FISKÁLNÍ A MONETÁRNÍ POLITIKY SLOVENSKA PRIZMATEM TEORIE HER

80%

Janků J. , Kappel S. , Kučerová Z.

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nr 1

51 – 71

EN

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy coordination is discussed both in countries with independent economic policies and in countries with a single currency. The aim of this article is to discuss and empirically assess the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia from Q1/2000 to Q2/2013, identify significant macroeconomic variables influencing the decisions of main economic-policy authorities in the analysed country and make conclusions concerning the cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies using the game theory approach. In the article, regression analysis and ordinary least squares methods are used. According to the empirical results, the conflict between monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia is identified. The stabilizing role of fiscal policy and problematic stabilizing role of monetary policy is confirmed. It contrasts with the other states of the Visegrad group.

5

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS OF EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

80%

Jankiewicz-Maciejewska A.

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nr 3(10)

113-141

EN

The paper presents the monetary policy and the principles of its formulating in the EU and the euro zone with the special emphasis on decision-making process in the commonwealth issues performed by European Central Bank (ECB). In order to enable the ECB to function properly it has been provided with a lot of independence which falls into 4 categories: institutional, personal, financial and functional. The organizational structure of the ECB is composed of: the Governing Council - the highest managerial body, the Executive Board the executive body and the General Council. Each of the above mentioned bodies has its own procedures of decision making, methods of voting relevant to their tasks and competence. The major task of the ECB together with the central banks of the EU members states of which ECB is composed is to keep prices stable. Summing up, the procedures of action used by ECB have been shaped in such a way which prevents political authorities from putting any pressure on the Bank and enable the Bank to make decisions effectively. At the same time, the decision making process concerning the monetary policy has been centralized in ECB whereas the executive functions have been decentralized on the level of national banks.

6

UKRAINE'S MONEY-AND-CREDIT MARKET: THE CRISIS LESSONS AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS (Hroshovo-kredytnyi rynok Ukrainy: kryzovi uroky ta korotkostrokovi perspektyvy)

80%

Danylenko A. I. , Shelud'ko N. M.

Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia (Economics and Forecasting)

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2010

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nr 1

9-19

EN

The article generalizes the tendencies of the functioning of Ukraine's money-and-credit market during the crisis period. The authors evaluate the adequacy of the current anti-crisis money-and-credit policy and outline the key challenges and risks for the monetary and credit sphere of Ukraine's economy in the current year.

7

Application of new Keynesian principles in the modelling practice of the Fed, the IMF and the European Central Bank

80%

Szabo-Bakos E.

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nr 5

415-434

EN

The paper summarizes the principles of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models, the possible extensions of the basic structure, and their implications for practical use. The author also discusses in detail the model-building strategy of the Federal Reserve System, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, and presents the model structure, some application of it, and its main implications.

8

Investment vs. Share Market Profitability

80%

Lon E.

Pieniądze i Więź

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2005

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tom 8

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nr 3(28)

47-58

EN

The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.

9

MONETARY POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF 'NAIRU' FLATTENING

80%

Balcerzak A.

Olsztyn Economic Journal

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2009

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tom 4

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nr 1

95-105

EN

The last decades represent a period of global economy fast transformation, which is reflected in the real life and leads to changes in relations between the situation in the labour market and the inflation processes. Those changes are frequently referred to as 'NAIRU' flattening. It can be expected that it will bring important consequences for the process of national monetary policy development in individual countries. The aim of the paper is to present analysis of the influence of NAIRU flattening on the effectiveness of the national monetary policy and effectiveness of its tools.

10

Interest Rate and the Money Demand Function (Can the Paradigm Be Changed?)

80%

Koronowski A. K.

Ekonomista

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2006

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nr 2

145-168

EN

The prevailing theoretical paradigm stipulating that demand for money negatively depends on nominal interest rate is in sharp contradiction with real monetary policy. It also leads to inconsistencies. The choice of the nominal rate of interest as the argument of money demand function determines the results of some known models - should they link demand for money to the real interest rate, the results would be different. These observations lead to reconsideration of the established theoretical reasoning concerning the motifs of monetary policies. Following these considerations a new paradigm linking interest rate and the demand for money is offered. The inference is that it is the real interest rate that plays crucial role in the determination of demand for money and that this relation is quite complex.

11

Level and Structure of the Monetary Base in Poland

80%

Jedruchniewicz A.

Pieniądze i Więź

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2008

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tom 11

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nr 3(40)

151-160

EN

Monetary base is one of these economical categories which play the particular role not only in monetary policy but also in whole economy. The main aim of the article was to present changes and structure of monetary base in Poland, as well as to define causes of these changes. In analyzed period (2001-2007) volume of the monetary base systematically increased (+53,9 billion PLN). Financial reserve accrual's variations were caused by unequal level of debt of household and enterprises, foreign assets' influx into Poland, and most of all operations of the central bank.

12

Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experiences and theoretical considerations.

80%

Kiss M. N.

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nr 11

846-872

EN

Although recent years have seen a decline in major central banks' FX market activity, such intervention has remained an active policy tool in several emerging economies and/ or countries applying inflation targeting. The paper surveys the literature on its effectiveness, presenting relevant theories and international empirical evidence and trying to identify aspects that increase effectiveness under various circumstances. Only cautious conclusions can be drawn. Central-bank intervention can be effective, mainly because FX activity by central banks can shape market expectations and influence the process of information aggregation. The effectiveness can be improved by matching objectives with appropriate intervention techniques and matching intervention strategy to circumstances in a flexible way. Intervention aiming at delivering strategic policy objectives is likely to be more efficient if pre-announced, transparent, coordinated with other central banks, and in line with macroeconomic policy. But to reach tactical objectives, central banks should conduct intervention in secret, paying heed to timing, around macro news announcements or during heavy trading volume. Central bankers should keep in mind that intervention - regardless of the chosen technique - affects the exchange rate mainly in the short or medium run. A more permanent shift in exchange rates calls for a change in fundamentals such as monetary-policy action..

13

Polityka fiskalna i monetarna zakonu krzyżackiego

80%

Żurek Ł.

|

2012

|

nr 879

81-91

EN

The Teutonic Order, as an institution acting both in the sacrum and profane spheres, permanently influenced the economic development not only of Western Europe, where its centers were located, but also and even more importantly Prussian territory, and by virtue of the trade the knights carried out, the whole of Europe. The fiscal and monetary policy of the Teutonic Order was treated instrumentally by the organisation’s authorities. It helped the Order to achieve its primary goals, namely the power of community and the wealth that grew out of it. A stable currency and adapting of the tax system to the prevailing socio-economic conditions were not favourable enough circumstances for the Order to make the reforms required to not only progress but also ensure the stable functioning of the body politic. The worsened economic situation, deteriorating at the hands of war, revealed negligence in handling monetary stability and the already too high tax burden increased recession, which contributed to the fall of the Order and the secularisation of the state. The efficient rule of the monastic state observed until the 14th century was complemented by equally efficient monetary and tax policy, and benefited the order in that it induced general economic growth in Prussia. However, the lack of suitable tax reforms and inappropriate measures in the monetary sphere by depreciation and deterioration of money in the 15th and 16th centuries led to the gradual fall of the monastic state.

14

SPÔSOB VÝKONU MENOVEJ POLITIKY – MENOVÉ PRAVIDLÁ, ALEBO DISKRÉTNE OPATRENIA?

80%

Mičúch M.

|

2011

|

tom 59

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nr 3

296 – 309

EN

Paper deals with theoretical debate on various approaches to monetary policy. It introduces ideas of two economic schools emphasizing monetary policy rules contrary to discretion. Proposed arguments reflect standpoints of on-going debate from 20th century up to present days. Source of theoretical arguments advocating policy rules are economic schools of monetarism and rational expectations. On the other hand, swig to discretion defend schools of Keynesianism. Summarized are key arguments of the both. The article contributes to academic debate even in situation of impaired competences of local central bank in domain of monetary policy.

15

Poland's Accession to the Eurozone - Critical Analysis

80%

Lis S.

|

2008

|

nr 3

329-355

EN

The article contains the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of approaches and hypotheses that concern costs and benefits resulting from Poland's accession to the eurozone. Comparative analysis indicates that the bottom line results of Poland joining the Economic and Currency Union should be - in the longer run - advantageous. The path leading Poland to eurozone seems to be difficult because the country does not meet nominal and real convergence criteria. The fundamental problem is attributable to the need of deep reformulation of structural policy: modernization of state institutions and of the economy, improvements in policy mix are the main points. Poland should be well prepared and 'ripe' to benefit from opportunities ensuing from integration. Voluntary or too early resignation from the ability to conduct own monetary and exchange policies would not safeguard the stability of macroeconomic policy under conditions of contemporary challenges facing the world economy. The article is concluded with the statement that the integration with the monetary union should be desirable and, in the overall account, will bring benefits for Poland.

16

MODERN PRINCIPLES OF MONETARY POLICY IN UKRAINE

80%

Danylyshyn O. A.

|

2008

|

nr 3(49)

120-126

EN

The features of money-credit policy of the National bank of Ukraine have been considered. Its principles and conformities to the law on the modern stage of economic development have been analyzed. On the basis of the conducted analysis the necessity of change of the strategic purpose of money-credit policy has been proved and principles of introduction of inflation's targeting in Ukraine have been substantiated.

17

HYSTERESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM 23 OECD COUNTRIES

70%

Kanalici A. H. , Nargelecekenler M. , Yilmaz F.

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nr 5

488 – 505

EN

Unemployment is one of the most important problems that all countries must overcome. As a result, it has become one of the centrally explored issues in macroeconomics, and several theories have been proposed to explain the existence of high unemployment rates. Traditional theories describe movements of unemployment as fluctuations around a natural rate. However, theories that rely on a natural rate of unemployment have been challenged by hysteresis theories. According to hysteresis theories, all shocks have permanent effects on the level of unemployment. This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 23 OECD countries covering the period 1963 – 2007. The paper applies both a univariate time series and a panel data unit root test with and without a structural break to test for unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results point to the rejection of the hysteresis hypothesis for the OECD and are compatible with structuralise theories as described by the structuralise view.

18

A NOTE ON THE INTERTEMPORAL RELATION BETWEEN MONEY AND PRICES IN POLAND

70%

Jablecki J.

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nr 3-4(58-59)

257-272

EN

In this article Lucas's (1980) filtering technique is used to extract the trend components from M3 growth and CPI inflation in Poland over the period 1996-2007. On the basis of correlations and graphical analysis three conclusions are reached regarding the relationship between the two series: (1) The correlations between money growth and inflation increase substantially as the filter suppresses the high-frequency components of the data, revealing an almost one-for-one relation between the trends. (2) Changes in the growth rate of M3 affect the rate of inflation after about a year, suggesting that the time lag is significantly shorter in Poland than in such developed countries as the US or the UK. (3) The pattern of Granger causality is univariate for both the filtered and unfiltered data, running from money to prices. The article closes with some remarks on the usefulness of the obtained results in the light of ongoing controversy over the use of monetary aggregates in monetary policy.

19

ANALÝZA ŘÍZENÍ RIZIK SEKTORU STAVEBNÍCH SPOŘITELEN V ČESKÉ REPUBLICE

60%

Horváth R. , Teplý P.

|

tom 61

|

nr 1

24 – 46

EN

The article investigates risks of building societies in the Czech Republic, both theoretically and practically, focusing on the liquidity and interest rate risk. We show that these two risks are more theoretical and are not threatening the sector in an extensive manner recently. Nevertheless, the stability of this sector can be undermined by hasty government reforms. In addition, we use the vector auto regression model to examine the interest rate pass-through into bank and building society interest rates in 2004 – 2011. The results indicate that the building society interest rates are more stable and less responsive to interbank market rates as well as to government bond yields. This conclusion follows from the institutional setting of building societies.

20

MONETARY CONDITIONS INDEX: NEW EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

60%

Nucu A. E. , Anton S. G.

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nr 2

139 – 158

EN

The aim of the paper is to build a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for four Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries by combining changes in the short-term interest rate and in the real effective exchange rate over the period August 2005 – December 2015. Contrary to previous papers, we employ a Vector Error Correction Model to assess the relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in several CEE countries. The results of the analysis provide new empirical evidence on the MCI’s ability to capture the monetary policy developments. Furthermore, we employ Granger causality to infer the extent of external influences on the overall monetary conditions of analysed countries. The results highlight that monetary decisions in the Eurozone have a prominent influence on monetary conditions in CEE countries.